With an increased number of time trial kilometres in the 2012 Tour de France compared to recent editions the GC candidates will need to have two good ITTs to stand atop the podium in Paris. The tables below are the finishing positions of the current top four riders on the GC at Grand Tours since 2007. These four riders appear to the fighting to the podium but after the 41.5km stage to Besançon the GC will be shuffled. This time the picture of who the overall candidates are will look a little clearer.
In 2011 Cadel Evans won the Tour following his Stage 20 heroics in the 42.5km ITT around Grenoble. On that day Evans finished second to Tony Martin who would go onto to claim his maiden world champion ITT and after two second places at the Tour won his maiden yellow jersey. What was more important than his finishing position on Stage 20 was that Evans had began the day 57 seconds in arrears to Andy Schleck but finished the stage 1:34 ahead of him and won the Tour by doing so. Evans won an ITT stage at the 2007 Tour after initially finishing second behind Alexander Vinokourov who won the Stage 13 time trial around Albi but later testing positive for doping. Bradley Wiggins finished one minute behind Evans in that stage but admittedly he was not as focused on the road as he is now. Evans will be looking to ride the last ITT of the 2012 in yellow and take the jersey on his shoulders all the way to Paris.
Wiggins has already won four ITT stages this season and will begin the Stage Nine time trial a slight favourite ahead of his GC rivals. Wiggins has shown that he the legs to go with the best climbers after his stage race wins this year but the ITT is where Wiggins will want to put serious time into his rivals. If Wiggins has to only follow his rivals in the mountains the Tour is most certainly his. However if he needs to make up time and attack his rivals in the mountains his tilt at the overall looks less likely. Wiggins and Evans are the two favourites for the overall in 2012 partly due to the high number of ITT kms. Evans is no slouch in the ITT and his time trial win at the Critérium International earlier this season will be a mental boost for the Australian. Depending on the results on the ITT Wiggins may intentionally lose yellow and want to stay out of the leader’s jersey until Stage 19.Wiggins appears at unease having to front the media for every day he is yellow and surrendering the jersey may actually be beneficial to his chances for the win. Without the pressure of yellow, Wiggins may be more relaxed and able to launch attacks without the full attention of the peloton.
At the 2008 Tour de France Carlos Sastre was in yellow heading into the final ITT which was a 53km race from Cérilly to Saint-Amand-Montrond but seemed destined to concede yellow to Evans. Evans had begun the Tour as a favourite and was wearing the number one bib on his back after Alberto Contador and his team Astana were not invited to the race following Vinokourov‘s positive test for blood doping. Without the Spaniard to whom Evans had lost the Tour by only 23 seconds to the previous year, the Silence-Lotto rider was a clear favourite for the overall and the Tour would be his to lose. Evans did lose the 2008 and his failure to catch Sastre on the final ITT was his undoing. Now with a one-one record in terms of final ITTs and the maillot jaune, Evans will be confident of making that record two-one in terms of Tour wins. Evans spent several days in yellow with a slender one lead over Franck Schleck in 2008 and as the outright favourite appeared to be seriously affected by this attention. Evans lost the yellow jersey after Stage 15 into Prato Nevoso to Schleck and slipped to third overall. Team CSC held onto yellow after this with the jersey changing hands to Sastre following his win at Alpe d’Huez on Stage 17 and Evans remained on the back foot watching his Tour dreams ride away. Sastre rode the ITT of his life to finish 12th on the stage to lose only 29 seconds to Evans. Evans managed to take back some time on Sastre on the final stage but it was not enough and for the second year running lost the Tour by under a minute. The demons of the 2008 ITT were exorcised in 2011 and Evans may be hoping to have the GC all but sown up by Stage 19.
Evans will be hoping that he will be in yellow during the Stage 20 ITT to Chartres and will have done enough throughout the race to hold a substantial lead over Wiggins. Evans showed during yesterday’s stage that he will attack where ever possible and claw back his current 10 second deficient to the Team Sky rider. Evans will have allies in the GC men who are not so strong in the ITT’s and will be looking to take time off Wiggins in the Alps and Pyrenees. Nibali and Menchov are both reasonable time trials but cannot count on taking time off Wiggins or Evans in them. They will need to attack in the mountains and at any opportunity that arises.
As the tables below show the current top four on the GC have all had impressive ITT results across the three weeks of the three Grand Tours. All have won an ITT stage at a Grand Tour and it appears quite possible that one of the four will win either tomorrow’s stage or Stage 19. The biggest threat from non-GC candidates looks like it will come from Fabian Cancellara as current ITT world champion Tony Martin is nursing several injuries. David Millar from Garmin-Sharp could be considered a dark horse for the stage win as could Rabobank’s Spanish national time trial champion Luis León Sanchez. However with the ITT looking to be decisive in the configuration of the overall, these riders may be pushed down the order by the GC men really wanting to gain some time over their rivals. There are several national ITT champions in the 2012 peloton but with the possibility of yellow after the conclusion of Stage 10, that may prove to be a bigger motivating factor than a stage win would be for the national champions.
Note: Only ITT stages are considered, no Prologue results have been listed. None of these riders competed in the 2012 Giro d’Italia, therefore the 2012 Tour de France will be their first Grand Tour for the year.
In 2011 Cadel Evans won the Tour following his Stage 20 heroics in the 42.5km ITT around Grenoble. On that day Evans finished second to Tony Martin who would go onto to claim his maiden world champion ITT and after two second places at the Tour won his maiden yellow jersey. What was more important than his finishing position on Stage 20 was that Evans had began the day 57 seconds in arrears to Andy Schleck but finished the stage 1:34 ahead of him and won the Tour by doing so. Evans won an ITT stage at the 2007 Tour after initially finishing second behind Alexander Vinokourov who won the Stage 13 time trial around Albi but later testing positive for doping. Bradley Wiggins finished one minute behind Evans in that stage but admittedly he was not as focused on the road as he is now. Evans will be looking to ride the last ITT of the 2012 in yellow and take the jersey on his shoulders all the way to Paris.
Wiggins has already won four ITT stages this season and will begin the Stage Nine time trial a slight favourite ahead of his GC rivals. Wiggins has shown that he the legs to go with the best climbers after his stage race wins this year but the ITT is where Wiggins will want to put serious time into his rivals. If Wiggins has to only follow his rivals in the mountains the Tour is most certainly his. However if he needs to make up time and attack his rivals in the mountains his tilt at the overall looks less likely. Wiggins and Evans are the two favourites for the overall in 2012 partly due to the high number of ITT kms. Evans is no slouch in the ITT and his time trial win at the Critérium International earlier this season will be a mental boost for the Australian. Depending on the results on the ITT Wiggins may intentionally lose yellow and want to stay out of the leader’s jersey until Stage 19.Wiggins appears at unease having to front the media for every day he is yellow and surrendering the jersey may actually be beneficial to his chances for the win. Without the pressure of yellow, Wiggins may be more relaxed and able to launch attacks without the full attention of the peloton.
At the 2008 Tour de France Carlos Sastre was in yellow heading into the final ITT which was a 53km race from Cérilly to Saint-Amand-Montrond but seemed destined to concede yellow to Evans. Evans had begun the Tour as a favourite and was wearing the number one bib on his back after Alberto Contador and his team Astana were not invited to the race following Vinokourov‘s positive test for blood doping. Without the Spaniard to whom Evans had lost the Tour by only 23 seconds to the previous year, the Silence-Lotto rider was a clear favourite for the overall and the Tour would be his to lose. Evans did lose the 2008 and his failure to catch Sastre on the final ITT was his undoing. Now with a one-one record in terms of final ITTs and the maillot jaune, Evans will be confident of making that record two-one in terms of Tour wins. Evans spent several days in yellow with a slender one lead over Franck Schleck in 2008 and as the outright favourite appeared to be seriously affected by this attention. Evans lost the yellow jersey after Stage 15 into Prato Nevoso to Schleck and slipped to third overall. Team CSC held onto yellow after this with the jersey changing hands to Sastre following his win at Alpe d’Huez on Stage 17 and Evans remained on the back foot watching his Tour dreams ride away. Sastre rode the ITT of his life to finish 12th on the stage to lose only 29 seconds to Evans. Evans managed to take back some time on Sastre on the final stage but it was not enough and for the second year running lost the Tour by under a minute. The demons of the 2008 ITT were exorcised in 2011 and Evans may be hoping to have the GC all but sown up by Stage 19.
Evans will be hoping that he will be in yellow during the Stage 20 ITT to Chartres and will have done enough throughout the race to hold a substantial lead over Wiggins. Evans showed during yesterday’s stage that he will attack where ever possible and claw back his current 10 second deficient to the Team Sky rider. Evans will have allies in the GC men who are not so strong in the ITT’s and will be looking to take time off Wiggins in the Alps and Pyrenees. Nibali and Menchov are both reasonable time trials but cannot count on taking time off Wiggins or Evans in them. They will need to attack in the mountains and at any opportunity that arises.
As the tables below show the current top four on the GC have all had impressive ITT results across the three weeks of the three Grand Tours. All have won an ITT stage at a Grand Tour and it appears quite possible that one of the four will win either tomorrow’s stage or Stage 19. The biggest threat from non-GC candidates looks like it will come from Fabian Cancellara as current ITT world champion Tony Martin is nursing several injuries. David Millar from Garmin-Sharp could be considered a dark horse for the stage win as could Rabobank’s Spanish national time trial champion Luis León Sanchez. However with the ITT looking to be decisive in the configuration of the overall, these riders may be pushed down the order by the GC men really wanting to gain some time over their rivals. There are several national ITT champions in the 2012 peloton but with the possibility of yellow after the conclusion of Stage 10, that may prove to be a bigger motivating factor than a stage win would be for the national champions.
Evans, Menchov, Nibali and Wiggins ITT performances at Grand Tours 2007-2012
Evans
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
Giro
d’Italia
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3rd (Stage 1), 2nd (Stage
16), 4th (Stage 21)
|
-
|
Tour
de France
|
1st (Stage 13), 2nd (Stage
19)
|
4th (Stage 4), 7th (Stage 20), 50th (Stage 20)
|
5th (Stage 1), 12th (Stage 18)
|
166th (Stage 19)
|
2nd (Stage 20)
|
Vuelta
de España
|
11th (Stage 8)
|
-
|
10th (Stage 4), 3rd (Stage
20)
|
-
|
-
|
Wiggins
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
Giro
d’Italia
|
-
|
157th (Stage 10), 4th (Stage
21)
|
7th, (Stage 12), 2nd (Stage
21)
|
1st (Stage 1), 67th 2nd
(Stage 16), 7th (Stage 21)
|
-
|
Tour
de France
|
4th (Stage 13), (Stage 19)
|
-
|
3rd (Stage 1), 6th (Stage
18)
|
9th (Stage 19)
|
WD
|
Vuelta
de España
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3rd (Stage 10)
|
Nibali
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
Giro
d’Italia
|
24th (Stage 13), 7th (Stage
20)
|
7th (Stage 10), 44th (Stage
21)
|
-
|
11th (Stage 1), 4th 2nd
(Stage 16), 5th (Stage 21)
|
1st (Stage 16)
|
Tour
de France
|
10th (Stage 4), 6th (Stage
20)
|
9th (Stage 1), 26th (Stage 18)
|
-
|
-
|
|
Vuelta
de España
|
-
|
-
|
15nd (Stage 17)
|
15th (Stage 10)
|
Menchov
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
Giro
d’Italia
|
-
|
6th (Stage 10), 25th (Stage
21)
|
1st (Stage 12), 10th (Stage 21)
|
-
|
6th (Stage 16)
|
Tour
de France
|
21st (Stage 13)
|
6th (Stage Four)
|
53rd (Stage 1), 17th (Stage
18)
|
11th (Stage 19)
|
-
|
Vuelta
de España
|
4th (Stage 8)
|
-
|
-
|
2nd (Stage 17)
|
13th (Stage 10)
|
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