The first mountain stage of the 2012 Tour de France was an indication who the GC candidates really are in the 99th edition of the race. After the posturing of the flattish first week and the endless hype and predictions that surround Le Tour, the climb to La Planche des Belles Filles was finally a sign of who has the legs in 2012. Chris Froome won the stage ahead of Cadel Evans and his Sky team mate Bradley Wiggins and as a reward will wear the maillot pois in tomorrow’s stage.
After the nasty crashes that occurred throughout the first week of the Tour, the first GC stage of the Tour was a welcome relief from the carnage on the flat roads. Several GC candidates have lost time and skin after the needless crashes and after yesterday, the GC is starting to fall into place. Fabian Cancellara ended the stage in 20th place 1:52 down on Froome and surrendered his yellow jersey to Wiggins. Cancellara is now 12th outright in the history of yellow jersey wearers having worn yellow on 28 days. Wiggins will wear his first yellow jersey on Stage Eight and the yellow helmets that Team Sky have been wearing as leaders of the team classification won't look so out of place. As well as yellow, Sky will also have Froome in the climbers jersey which means Sky have worn three of the four classification jerseys in 2012 as well as leading the team classification since the prologue in Liège. Team Sky have now won two stages out of seven and the British team must be feeling good about the 2012 Tour so far. Yellow in Paris is still the goal but it appears doubtful that Wiggins will hold onto yellow until then. He may wish to offload the jersey to a rival and take it back after the Stage Nineteen time trial from Bonneval to Chartes with the 53.5km time trial still looking likely to be decisive in the overall classification.
Of the GC men who were touted as favourites for yellow in Paris, Wiggins and Evans didn’t disappoint last night. Vincenzo Nibali who was seen as a second tier favourite came in fourth and will have been buoyed by his result. Evans had instigated the attack up the 5.9km last climb, whose average gradient was 8.5%, was reeled in and surpassed by Froome. Considering Wiggins has the impressive Froome as a team mate, Nibali and Evans may just form an alliance of convenience to overcome Team Sky. As well as Froome, Sky displayed its depth of domestiques with Richie Porte and Michael Rogers also proving that in the bigger mountains, they will be decisive in Wiggins’s attempt to ride into Paris wearing yellow. Porte is a lowly 88th in the overall after Stage Seven but will most probably move up after the ITT during Stage Nine. As it stands currently in the GC, Froome and Rogers are both in the top ten and could finish the Tour in high positions. Team Sky could lead the team classification from Liège to Paris simply due to the efforts of Wiggins, Froome and Rogers with their high GC positions. They seem the team most likely to finish with multiple riders in the top twenty positions.
BMC will be feeling that they had a mixed result after yesterday. Tejay van Garderen surrendered the white jersey of the young riders classification to Rein Taaramäe and is now second in that classification. Evans finished second in the stage but showed he is willing to attack when the road starts going upward. At only 10 seconds off Wiggins, Evans will be feeling somewhat relieved to be this close to his major GC rival after seven stages and will be delighted to have some of the focus of attention shifted from him onto the British rider. Wiggins has shown that he can cope with the pressure of being the race leader after his exploits at Paris-Nice, the Tour of Romandie and the Critérium de Dauphiné this year. However, this is the Tour and those stage races were only a warm up. Wiggins will have to confront the press for each day he is in yellow and he isn’t the biggest fan such appearances. Cancellara was considering losing the yellow jersey simply because he was tired of these press shenanigans. Considering Wiggins and Cavendish have given only little snippets of interviews so far, the yellow jersey press conferences may be an unwanted sideshow that increase any anxiety Wiggins or Team Sky are feeling about being in yellow. This is Sky’s first maillot jaune and completes a Grand Tour leader’s jersey hat trick. Wiggins wore the Maglia Rosa of the Giro d’Italia in 2011, the red jersey of 2011 Vuelta de España and now in 2012, the maillot jaune. As well as Wiggins, Froome also wore the Vuelta’s red leader’s jersey on Stage 11 last year.
Nibali and Taaramäe were the most impressive of the other GC favourites as they came in fourth and fifth respectively yesterday. Rein Taaramäe has threatened an impressive Tour performance in his two previous Tour appearances. This is the second consecutive year that Taaramäe was worn the white jersey and is the last year in which he his eligible for the young riders classification. Taaramäe’s break out Grand Tour was at the 2011 Vuelta in which he won Stage 14 before he withdrew. Now 2012 is looking like it could be his most successful Grand Tour appearance. His stage win was a sign that the Estonian could back up the praise that he had received and now as the white jersey leader, his endeavours may justify even further praise. As a three time time trial champion of Estonia he has shown that time trials should not be an obstacle to mounting a challenge for the overall. Tejay van Garderen looks like he’ll be the major challenge to Taaramäe taking the white jersey and as he is also a fine time trialler. After the 41.5km Stage Nine time trial the classification will become a little clearer and whoever rolls out in white on Stage Ten may just be wearing white in Paris.
The 2010 Vuelta de España winner Nibali has also won two stages at the Giro as well as finishing on the podium twice in Milan. At the Tour, Nibali hasn’t been as successful as in the other two Grand Tours. Having only made two appearances at the Tour, Nibali has done well but has done so without making any big headlines. A 2oth place on debut in 2008 was good enough for him to finish third in the young riders classification and was as sign of his Grand Tour maturation. His return in 2009 resulted in seventh overall and second place overall for the white jersey. No longer eligible for white, Nibali is entirely focused on yellow. With super domestique Ivan Basso an ally in the mountains, Nibali will look for an improvement upon seventh as a minimum. Stage wins and a stint on yellow could be likely but the overall looks to be beyond the Sicilian.
Nibali hasn’t finished outside the top ten in a Grand Tour since 2008 and he looks to be on track to continue such a fine record but a second Grand Tour victory looks like it won't be won in Paris. Having announced he is leaving Liquigas-Cannondale at the end of this season, Nibali will also be looking to impress and ensure he signs the best deal he can. Rumoured to have agreed a deal with Astana, Nibali’s loyalty to Liquigas has ensured that he will be supported over Basso as the team leader. Since he moved to the Italian team in 2006 from Fasso Bortolo, Nibali has been a key rider for the team and won a third Grand Tour for the team and its first Spanish Grand Tour.
In a top ten are still one or two riders that by Paris will have dropped down several places but the GC is beginning to take shape. Tonight’s stage into Switzerland from Belfort to Porrentruy contains seven categorised climbs which will again shake up the GC. However the ITT the next day will sort out the pretenders from the contenders so some the riders who are poor in that discipline may just try to limit their losses in Stage Nine by attacking tonight and gaining some precious time over their rivals. Nibali may just be one of those riders whose time trialling is somewhat inferior to Wiggins and Evans. With six of the current top ten previous national champions in the ITT the shakeup of the GC could see those such as Chris Froome and Nibali looking to make up time in tonight’s stage. With almost twenty kilometres from the summit of the Col de la Croix to the finish in Porrentruy, there could a very fast descent on the card and a yellow jersey awaiting one of the top ten riders.
