Thursday 14 June 2012

Wiggins, Evans, Schleck and Contrasting Fortunes

With the 2012 Tour de France only 3 weeks away the genuine contenders for the maillot jaune are showing that come July it could be an exciting and open GC race. A surprise withdrawal from the Dauphiné yesterday was Andy Schleck who claimed the injuries he sustained in the ITT had caught up with him. It has since been revealed that he suffered a fractured pelvis and is out of the Tour. Evans gained time over Wiggins in the GC to move up to third. This was not enough as Wiggins continued to hold on to a winning lead over Michael Rogers by over a minute in second and Evans in third. Wiggins is looking to be in almost career best form leading into the Tour although there is a chance he could be peaking too soon. One of the disappointments of the 2011 Tour was Wiggins crashing out with a broken collarbone. Whether or not he could have improvement upon his 4th place in 2009 became a hypothetical with his crash. However 2012 is shaping up as a year in which Wiggins will again peak for the Tour and appears to be doing so both mentally and physically.

Evans, Schleck and Wiggins looked to be three major protagonists of the Tour with the Dauphiné functioning as a dress rehearsal of the Tour. Prior to news regarding his injury and Tour withdrawal, Schleck had hardly looked like the GC candidate he has been in recent years. He has shown that the Tour is when he peaks regardless of his form, or lack of, throughout the season. With Schleck announcing a fracture of his pelvis following his crash in the ITT at the Dauphiné, 2012 is shaping up as the year for Wiggins to take home the Golden Fleece. Schleck’s absence from the Tour is disappointing but there is no doubt there will be intriguing plots and sub-plots in his absence. Brother Franck will take over as the GC man for Radioshack-Nissan but how he recovers from a tough Giro which he eventually abandoned remains to be seen. As will how Radioshack-Nissan will function after a fractious season so far in which Fabian Cancellara has been the stand out rider. This is even more apparent after Cancellara was sidelined with a quad collar bone fracture and this has added to the disharmony of the merger team of Leopard and Radioshack.

The means by which these three GC candidates were approaching the Tour had dramatic differences in form and schedule. Schleck will now turn his attention to the Olympics and the Vuelta where a show down with a returning Alberto Contador looks likely. Wiggins became the first man to win the Tour of Romandie, Paris-Nice and the Dauphiné in the one season and will look to build upon that with a Tour victory as his Tour prep has been mostly outstanding. Evans on the other hand has had a good lead up to the Tour but is yet to find great form. Evans adds another podium at the Dauphiné in GC to his palmares but the time he conceded to Wiggins in the ITT will be at the forefront of Evans mind. Not the podium finish but he can take away a points jersey and a stage win which is reassuring.

As the Tour approaches by the day and team selections begin to be released, this will indicate the different teams approaches to the Tour and who will be the supported men. For SKY they will have a tough selection as they look to accommodate Wiggins and Cavendish who are both looking for a jersey to take home. Evans was in a similar position at Silence-Lotto in 2008 as his team attempted to accommodate his GC aspirations with the green jersey aspirations of sprinter Robbie McEwen. Neither rider took home a jersey but they had promising Tours. Evans will have this knowledge as he faces up to Wiggins in the Tour knowing he has the full support of his BMC team, an audacious break away on a stage in which Cavendish is the supported rider may just upset SKY’s team balance as a statement of Evans intent to win another Tour. Either way, as teams are released for the Tour, the fortunes of Wiggins and Evans will become much clearer as they look to be the two prime GC candidates for the 2012 Tour de France. Wiggins could be seen as slightly more favoured but Evans breakthrough win last year is an advantage that Wiggins cannot match.

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