In recent editions of the Tour de France Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck have been the major protagonists of the race. In 2012 neither will be racing due to a doping ban and injury respectively. One rider who has stood on the podium three times during the Schleck Contador reign is Australian Cadel Evans who will begin the race in Liege as the defending champion. Without the two Tour winners Evans has been regarded by many as the favourite for the yellow jersey for the second year running. His greatest competition will come from a rider who has won Olympic gold medals and world champions on the track but has turned his attention to becoming the first British rider to win a Tour de France. Evans and Bradley Wiggins squared off in June at the Critérium de Dauphiné in which Wiggins won and became the first rider to win Paris-Nice, the Tour de Romandie and the Dauphiné in one season. Due to these impressive results Wiggins has become a realistic rival to Evans in the race for yellow. Behind these two riders is cast of candidates who are capable of entering Paris on the 22nd of July in yellow but if that is to happen, than it would be a Tour that Evans and Wiggins had lost.
Evans will be riding for the BMC racing team once again with the core of his team last year backing up again. The addition of American Tejay Van Garderen looks to be a canny move that will provide Evans much needed support in the mountains of which he has lacked in past Tours. George Hincapie is returning for his 17th Tour start and will again be a crucial component if Evans is to go back to back. BMC enters the Tour this year with the single objective of taking the yellow jersey to Paris and seeing Evans atop the podium on the Champs-Élysées. The dedication of BMC to ensure Evans wins his second Tour title is a major reason for why Evans is carrying the favourite title.
Bradley Wiggin’s two best Grand Tour performances have come at the Tour and the Vuelta. In 2009 he finished a surprise fourth although his results since then have indicated that the move from the track to the road has been a success. A third place in last year’s Vuelta was the first time Wiggins had stood upon a Grand Tour podium and can hardly be said to be his last podium appearance. Wiggins has grown in confidence on the road and the responsibility as team captain is one he has settled into comfortably. Wiggins will have the support of two Australians in the mountains, Richie Porte and Michael Rogers, who have both ridden alongside the Britton this season when he has won a stage race. Whereas Evans is assured of complete team support, Team Sky in comparison will have to juggle the GC aspirations of Wiggins with the stage wins and possible green jersey ambitions of world champion Mark Cavendish. This is a clear distinction between BMC and Sky and where their ambitions lay.
Behind the two favourites are two former Grand Tour winners, both at the Vuelta, Dennis Menchov and Vincenzo Nibali who look likely to threaten the GC but with the 100kms plus of time trialling its looks unlikely they will be wearing yellow in Paris. As well as his two Vuelta wins Menchov has a Giro under his belt to go with two podium finishes at the Tour. The Italian Michele Scarponi is the beneficiary of Alberto Contador's positive drug test as he was awarded the 2011 Giro d’Italia title and will be another rider in the peloton to have won a Grand Tour. Joining these three as Grand Tour winners is Ivan Basso, two time winner of the Giro, the 2012 Giro winner Ryder Hesjedal, 2011 Vuelta Winner Juan Jose Cobo, 2009 Vuelta Winner Alejandro Valverde and finally the 2006 Vuelta winner Alexander Vinokourov who make up the Grand Tour winners in the 2012 Tour de France peloton. Of the previous winners Menchov and Nibali look to be the most threatening to Evans and Wiggins. Basso will be riding in support of Nibali, Hesjedal seems unlikely to be able to complete the first Giro-Tour double since 1998 while Valverde and Vinokourov are arguably not the riders they were when they when won the Vuelta. Juan Jose Cobo was a surprise winner at the Vuelta and the Tour looks to a be a step too far for the Spaniard. Valverde is returning from a doping ban and does not appear to have the high mountain prowess he once exhibited, nor does his time trialling appear to be at the level of a Tour winner. Much the same could be said of Vinokourov except that his return from doping was now several seasons ago and at 38 would need to perform at a superhuman level to crack the top five.
The challenges to Evans and Wiggins extend beyond Grand Tour winners who still represent a real threat to the overall. Franck Schleck finished third last year standing on the podium with his brother Andy. Schleck has been clear in letting all and sundry know that he is not in Tour winning form. A mountain stage win and possibly the maillot pois could be the new objectives for Schleck. An abject Giro doesn’t bode well for Schleck’s chances at the Tour but he is a proven Tour rider and may lift himself to a level that has so far this season evaded him. Behind Schleck there are several riders with top ten Tour results who are looking to improve upon and move onto the podium. Robert Gesink, Pierre Rolland and Jurgen van den Broeck are all capable of raising themselves into the next echelon and have teams that can provide the needed support. However where these rivals falter in their challenge for yellow is in their time trailing. As Gesink, Rolland and van den Broeck are all good climbers the mountain stages may see the fireworks go off unlike we have seen in recent years. These riders will need to make up time to stem any losses in the 100kms plus of time trialling.
What could eventuate is a situation similar to last year in which the GC men hardly had a second to rest. The flat sprinters stages are traditionally an avenue by which they can rest and recuperate from their climbing efforts. Although with so many GC candidates unable to gain time in the TT, in fact they are more likely to lose time, this could see endless attacks and attempts to gain precious seconds in order to build a lead over Evans and Wiggins before the Stage 19 time trial. A consequence of this may be a repeat of the nervous opening week of the 2011 Tour in which crashes were a constant feature. Wiggins was a victim of this as he was caught up in a crash on Stage 7 breaking his collar bone in 2011. As a result he had to abandon, being joined in abandoning by Vinokourov and van den Broeck as they also suffered extensive injuries and were unable to complete the race.
With so many teams looking to launch a bid for the yellow jersey as well as a several teams looking for sprint wins, flat stages look to be the most precious of all in 2012. As the GC men look to race at the head of the peloton and stay out of trouble, as the stage reaches its conclusion and teams move their sprinters forward in anticipation for the sprint, the GC men will need to incredibly astute or face and early exit from the Tour. This is where the inexperience of riders can be shown and the necessity of GC teams to have a tough, uncompromising general on the road. Hincapie has been bossing the peloton for years and in his last Tour it can be expected he will not relent until the final sprint on the Champs-Élysées. With Team Sky looking to take stage wins in the sprints with Mark Cavendish Wiggins may find himself compromised and lack the support that Evans will be given every second that the race is hurtling along at 70km/h with 198 riders jostling for a better position. Team Sky will look to control the peloton leading into the sprints but with Orica-GreenEdge, Argos-Shimano Liquigas-Cannondale, Lampre et al all trying to get their sprinter into position carnage awaits.
For the riders who have shown promise, the lack of Contador and Schleck will allow their stars to shine a little brighter if they achieve success. Gesink and Bauke Mollema at Rabobank are two riders that will push for top five GC results. Rolland looks like he will have a freer role than last year where he rode amazingly to protect Voeckler during his stint in yellow while riding himself into the white jersey. For him a stint in yellow may await as he showed his prowess on the slopes of L'Alpe d'Huez by winning the stage ahead of Contador. van den Broeck has had three top ten results at Grand Tour’s and will have the support of Jelle Vanendert in the mountains which will be pivotal to any success he has. These riders will need to initiate attacks and look to isolate Evans and Wiggins in the big mountain stages if they want to do more than finish top five. Menchov has ridden into high GC positions recently by following the wheels of Contador and Evans but such a pragmatic approach won't win the Tour if riders will only follow. Nibali will have a helpful team mate in Basso as the two will work in tandem to put the hammer down and blow the race apart during the mountains.
Of the GC teams most will have at least a dual prong attack that they will be able to call upon. Nibali will have Basso, van den Broeck will have Vanendert, Rabobank have three with Gesink, Mollema and Kruijswijk, Sky also have three with Wiggins, Porte and Rogers while Evans will have van Garderen. Rolland won't have the same support as his rivals nor will Menchov but they will look to benefit from indecision between these teams as to when attack and may be allowed to launch their attacks without being hauled in.
Evans and Wiggins are the two clear favourites due to their TT prowess and strong team support. The distinction between the two is Evans is a Tour winner and will be riding with more or less the team that delivered him to Paris in yellow. Wiggins may hold a psychological edge over Evans after his win at the Dauphiné although Evans may feel that is redundant as he is the defending Tour winner. With the other GC candidates lined up behind these two and none of them possessing the TT skill of Evans and Wiggins the mountains look to be the source of constant animation in the race for yellow as they will look for enough time to hold off the TT specialists. There will be very little time for recovery and by Paris the winner will be there deservedly. An attack similar to Andy Schleck on Stage 18 to Serre Chevalier would break open the race and the GC standings but it appears every beside Evans and Wiggins will be riding for third place.
Evans will be riding for the BMC racing team once again with the core of his team last year backing up again. The addition of American Tejay Van Garderen looks to be a canny move that will provide Evans much needed support in the mountains of which he has lacked in past Tours. George Hincapie is returning for his 17th Tour start and will again be a crucial component if Evans is to go back to back. BMC enters the Tour this year with the single objective of taking the yellow jersey to Paris and seeing Evans atop the podium on the Champs-Élysées. The dedication of BMC to ensure Evans wins his second Tour title is a major reason for why Evans is carrying the favourite title.
Bradley Wiggin’s two best Grand Tour performances have come at the Tour and the Vuelta. In 2009 he finished a surprise fourth although his results since then have indicated that the move from the track to the road has been a success. A third place in last year’s Vuelta was the first time Wiggins had stood upon a Grand Tour podium and can hardly be said to be his last podium appearance. Wiggins has grown in confidence on the road and the responsibility as team captain is one he has settled into comfortably. Wiggins will have the support of two Australians in the mountains, Richie Porte and Michael Rogers, who have both ridden alongside the Britton this season when he has won a stage race. Whereas Evans is assured of complete team support, Team Sky in comparison will have to juggle the GC aspirations of Wiggins with the stage wins and possible green jersey ambitions of world champion Mark Cavendish. This is a clear distinction between BMC and Sky and where their ambitions lay.
Behind the two favourites are two former Grand Tour winners, both at the Vuelta, Dennis Menchov and Vincenzo Nibali who look likely to threaten the GC but with the 100kms plus of time trialling its looks unlikely they will be wearing yellow in Paris. As well as his two Vuelta wins Menchov has a Giro under his belt to go with two podium finishes at the Tour. The Italian Michele Scarponi is the beneficiary of Alberto Contador's positive drug test as he was awarded the 2011 Giro d’Italia title and will be another rider in the peloton to have won a Grand Tour. Joining these three as Grand Tour winners is Ivan Basso, two time winner of the Giro, the 2012 Giro winner Ryder Hesjedal, 2011 Vuelta Winner Juan Jose Cobo, 2009 Vuelta Winner Alejandro Valverde and finally the 2006 Vuelta winner Alexander Vinokourov who make up the Grand Tour winners in the 2012 Tour de France peloton. Of the previous winners Menchov and Nibali look to be the most threatening to Evans and Wiggins. Basso will be riding in support of Nibali, Hesjedal seems unlikely to be able to complete the first Giro-Tour double since 1998 while Valverde and Vinokourov are arguably not the riders they were when they when won the Vuelta. Juan Jose Cobo was a surprise winner at the Vuelta and the Tour looks to a be a step too far for the Spaniard. Valverde is returning from a doping ban and does not appear to have the high mountain prowess he once exhibited, nor does his time trialling appear to be at the level of a Tour winner. Much the same could be said of Vinokourov except that his return from doping was now several seasons ago and at 38 would need to perform at a superhuman level to crack the top five.
The challenges to Evans and Wiggins extend beyond Grand Tour winners who still represent a real threat to the overall. Franck Schleck finished third last year standing on the podium with his brother Andy. Schleck has been clear in letting all and sundry know that he is not in Tour winning form. A mountain stage win and possibly the maillot pois could be the new objectives for Schleck. An abject Giro doesn’t bode well for Schleck’s chances at the Tour but he is a proven Tour rider and may lift himself to a level that has so far this season evaded him. Behind Schleck there are several riders with top ten Tour results who are looking to improve upon and move onto the podium. Robert Gesink, Pierre Rolland and Jurgen van den Broeck are all capable of raising themselves into the next echelon and have teams that can provide the needed support. However where these rivals falter in their challenge for yellow is in their time trailing. As Gesink, Rolland and van den Broeck are all good climbers the mountain stages may see the fireworks go off unlike we have seen in recent years. These riders will need to make up time to stem any losses in the 100kms plus of time trialling.
What could eventuate is a situation similar to last year in which the GC men hardly had a second to rest. The flat sprinters stages are traditionally an avenue by which they can rest and recuperate from their climbing efforts. Although with so many GC candidates unable to gain time in the TT, in fact they are more likely to lose time, this could see endless attacks and attempts to gain precious seconds in order to build a lead over Evans and Wiggins before the Stage 19 time trial. A consequence of this may be a repeat of the nervous opening week of the 2011 Tour in which crashes were a constant feature. Wiggins was a victim of this as he was caught up in a crash on Stage 7 breaking his collar bone in 2011. As a result he had to abandon, being joined in abandoning by Vinokourov and van den Broeck as they also suffered extensive injuries and were unable to complete the race.
With so many teams looking to launch a bid for the yellow jersey as well as a several teams looking for sprint wins, flat stages look to be the most precious of all in 2012. As the GC men look to race at the head of the peloton and stay out of trouble, as the stage reaches its conclusion and teams move their sprinters forward in anticipation for the sprint, the GC men will need to incredibly astute or face and early exit from the Tour. This is where the inexperience of riders can be shown and the necessity of GC teams to have a tough, uncompromising general on the road. Hincapie has been bossing the peloton for years and in his last Tour it can be expected he will not relent until the final sprint on the Champs-Élysées. With Team Sky looking to take stage wins in the sprints with Mark Cavendish Wiggins may find himself compromised and lack the support that Evans will be given every second that the race is hurtling along at 70km/h with 198 riders jostling for a better position. Team Sky will look to control the peloton leading into the sprints but with Orica-GreenEdge, Argos-Shimano Liquigas-Cannondale, Lampre et al all trying to get their sprinter into position carnage awaits.
For the riders who have shown promise, the lack of Contador and Schleck will allow their stars to shine a little brighter if they achieve success. Gesink and Bauke Mollema at Rabobank are two riders that will push for top five GC results. Rolland looks like he will have a freer role than last year where he rode amazingly to protect Voeckler during his stint in yellow while riding himself into the white jersey. For him a stint in yellow may await as he showed his prowess on the slopes of L'Alpe d'Huez by winning the stage ahead of Contador. van den Broeck has had three top ten results at Grand Tour’s and will have the support of Jelle Vanendert in the mountains which will be pivotal to any success he has. These riders will need to initiate attacks and look to isolate Evans and Wiggins in the big mountain stages if they want to do more than finish top five. Menchov has ridden into high GC positions recently by following the wheels of Contador and Evans but such a pragmatic approach won't win the Tour if riders will only follow. Nibali will have a helpful team mate in Basso as the two will work in tandem to put the hammer down and blow the race apart during the mountains.
Of the GC teams most will have at least a dual prong attack that they will be able to call upon. Nibali will have Basso, van den Broeck will have Vanendert, Rabobank have three with Gesink, Mollema and Kruijswijk, Sky also have three with Wiggins, Porte and Rogers while Evans will have van Garderen. Rolland won't have the same support as his rivals nor will Menchov but they will look to benefit from indecision between these teams as to when attack and may be allowed to launch their attacks without being hauled in.
Evans and Wiggins are the two clear favourites due to their TT prowess and strong team support. The distinction between the two is Evans is a Tour winner and will be riding with more or less the team that delivered him to Paris in yellow. Wiggins may hold a psychological edge over Evans after his win at the Dauphiné although Evans may feel that is redundant as he is the defending Tour winner. With the other GC candidates lined up behind these two and none of them possessing the TT skill of Evans and Wiggins the mountains look to be the source of constant animation in the race for yellow as they will look for enough time to hold off the TT specialists. There will be very little time for recovery and by Paris the winner will be there deservedly. An attack similar to Andy Schleck on Stage 18 to Serre Chevalier would break open the race and the GC standings but it appears every beside Evans and Wiggins will be riding for third place.
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