Paris Roubaix 2012 Preview

Paris Roubaix

An Easter in Hell

Eagerly awaited as the third of five monuments in the cycling calendar, Paris-Roubaix is sure to be a special race once again. The 110^th edition will be raced over 257.5km’s on Easter Sunday with the outright favourite Tom Boonen looking to win the race for a 4^th time.  If Boonen goes on to win it will be his second Ronde-Roubaix double after his success season in 2005. Tied on three wins with some of the sports superstars such as Eddy Merckx and Johan Museeuw, a 4^th win would take him level with compatriot Rodger De Vlaeminck who won four editions of the race in the 1970s. There will be several riders capable of stopping Tommeke in Sunday but they will be starting as second tier favourites.  A crash by Boonen may be the only way to stop the Belgian from rewriting the history books, again.

Known affectionately as the Hell of the North, Paris-Roubaix harks back to the beginnings of professional cycling. The cobbled sections, or pavé, are one of the distinguishing features of the race proving thrills and spills for riders and spectators. When the pavés are wet the race becomes more spectacular as the fighting spirit and courage of the riders shone through.  Covered head to toe in mud while racing along the pavé at speeds exceeding 60kms is only a trivial matter, positioning will be a far more important  though in the riders mins than paying attention to some mud on the face. A crucial stage in the race is always the entry into the Trouée d'Arenberg. At 2400 meters in length, this section of pavé the Trouée d'Arenberg section was left out in 2005 after it was considered unsafe for racing. Earlier in the year there were fears that Trouée d'Arenberg would be left out again after excessive moss and plant growth had rendered the pavé unsuitable for racing. The entry into the Arenberg is often fraught with the select riders jostling for position to ensure the entry the forest in the first positions who exits the 2.4kms in the leading positions is usually an indication of who will finish on the podium.  Introduced in 1968 the Arenberg is one if the defining sections of pavé in the race. Not the longest section of the pavé but definitely one the hardest it is arguably an inclusion for the benefit of spectators than the riders. Filippo Pozzato is one rider who has expressed concerns over its inclusion. However with the amount of pavé taken home by keen spectators, his view could be said to be the minority.

The pavé vary in length, difficulty and elevation in the race. There will be a total of 51.5km s of pavé in the 2012 race. The idiosyncrasies of the pavé enhance the race with the riders at times only just recovering between sections of pavé before reaching another. Although the parcours of the race continually change depending on the condition of roads and pavé sections the most decisive sections are generally regarded as the aforementioned Trouée d'Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle (3kms in length) and the Carrefour L’Arbre which in the final kilometres of race is quite often the deciding factor in the race at 2.1kms. These three sections are giving the hardest rating of five stars which is calculated through the conditions of the pavé, length and their position in the race. The pavé of the Trouée d'Arenberg section where first laid during the reign of the Napoleon I however their history has become entwined with cycling. The historical depth of the race is a sign of its appeal as much more than a bicycle race. It is a race that encompasses European and French history and in doing so shows the heroic qualities of Napoleon are now found in the lucky cyclists who race on the pavé each year.

The other two five star pavé sections are either side of the Trouée d’Arenberg in length. Of the three, Mons-en-Pévèle is the longest and the Carrefour L’Arbre the shortest. The Mons-en-Pévèle section begins with what can be referred to as regular pavé or at least ‘good condition’ pavé before the section becomes harder with irregular pavé in quite often muddy conditions. With several turns in this section bike handling is put the ultimate test. After departing the Mons-en-Pévèle the riders have to endure 9 more sections of pavé before they enter the velodrome at Roubaix and the hardest of those remaining sections is the Carrefour L’Arbre. As the 4^th last section of pavé it is packed with spectators hoping for one final view of the pavé. In 2006 Stuart O’Grady became the first Australian to win the race, led the peloton through the Carrefour L’Arbre soloing away to the win. One year later O’Grady’s teammate Fabian Cancellara emulated his move by also riding solo over this section of the pavé. There is a variety of pavé condition on this section varying from almost atrocious pavé to those in good conditions in equal distribution across the road. After the Carrefour L’Arbre the remaining sections of pavé are rated two and one stars and the race can no longer be decided by the pavé.

Following Boonen’s sprint victory over Pozzato at De Ronde, Alessandro Ballan this week has said that Pozzato cannot beat Boonen in a sprint. Boonen has tried to deflect the talk of favouritism by talking up his rivals but if the race comes down to a sprint in the velodrome between Boonen and his rivals, a fourth title looks likely to be his. One rider capable of matching Boonen in a sprint after 250kms is Ballan’s teammate Thor Hushovd. The 2010 world champion had consecutive podium finishes in 2009-2010 finishing second and third. Keen to repay the faith BMC has placed in him after his move from Garmin-Cervélo at the end of year’s season, the Norwegian will hoping for a successful Paris-Roubaix with BMC. Ballan proved he is on form after his 3^rd placing at De Ronde. However he may find Hushovd as the protected rider on Sunday although that shouldn’t hinder the Italian from a top ten position. Greg Van Avermaet showed that in BMC’s expensively assembled Classics team that a high finish is possible without being a protected rider. The 3^rd and 4^th finishes of Ballan and Van Avermaet respectively could a sign of the things to come from BMC at Roubaix with Hushovd the third ace in their hand. The foregone conclusion of Boonen walking away with anther cobble may not be so if BMC are on fire, never mind the form of Pozzato.

Garmin-Barracuda will be looking to defend Johan Vansummeren’s title after he rode away to win by 19 seconds last year. It appears unlikely that the 6’6’ Belgian will repeat his heroics of last year but a high finish would still be a positive result. On the American team, Heinrich Haussler will be looking for a top ten finish as attempts to once again recapture his scintillating form of 2009. Omega Pharma-Quickstep, Garmin-Barracuda and BMC will have three of the strongest teams on Easter Sunday and a podium comprising riders from each of the respective teams could be a reflection of their strength in numbers. Nissan Radioshack Leopard’s loss of Cancellara has shown their lack of strength and depth of alternatives Classics riders.  Greenedge will be keen to put in a god showing in its Paris-Roubaix debut but they may just be making up numbers at the conclusion of the race. After a successful introduction to the Pro Tour anything positive at Paris-Roubaix would be another boost for the team. With Simon Gerrans looking ahead to the Ardennes later this month, several Greenedge riders may just be riding to enjoy the monument gathering more experience as a team on the world circuit as the team will begin to look ahead to the Giro and Le Tour. The seven wild card teams this year may pull of a surprise top ten but their entry into the race will for some, be enough in itself as they enjoy the prestige of riding Paris-Roubaix.

This is Boonen’s race to lose. The pavé will play a deciding factor in the race with the three five star rated sections most probably playing the biggest roles of the pavé. The tactics of the teams will surely be how to stop Boonen but with the strength of Omega Pharma-Quickstep already on display after flexing their muscles at De Ronde, it might not be such an easy task. BMC and Garmin-Barracuda look to have strong teams and will influence the outcome of the race. Otherwise it is really individual riders rather than teams who’ll play decisive cards. If a rider manages to make a successful break it’ll be a big ballsy move. Without a strong Cancellara to blow the race apart there may be less tired bodies and a result several riders could enter the velodrome together. If Boonen was to be in that group, watch out, if Hushovd isn’t there with him, Boonen taking home a fourth cobble looks likely. It is not a foregone conclusion that Boonen will win. He still has to race. However as De Ronde showed, a little bit of bad luck can change the entire complexion of the race and the entire spring Classics with it. Isolating Boonen may be the prevailing tactic of the day but any weakness of Boonen looks trivial.

The Teams for Paris-Roubaix are yet to be finalised. Information of the 2012 route and a map can be found at http://www.letour.fr/2012/PRX/COURSE/fr/le_parcours.html.