Originally written on Wednesday 29 June 2011
Contador’s grueling Giro d’Italia in May has left the Saxo Bank- Sunguard rider still feeling the effects a month later. Contador’s performance in Tour will be measured against his hearing and Giro win as his rival’s wanting a fair race must also be wishing a Giro-Tour is beyond the Spaniard in 2011. Contador’s biggest rivals for the his fourth Tour are two riders who have finished twice beyond him, once, Australian Cadel Evans (BMC), and twice, Luxembourger Andy Schleck (Leopard-Trek). Another 2nd place finisher is 2010 Giro winner, Italian Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale) who along with the Dutchmen Robert Gesink (Rabobank), newly crowned British national champion Bradley Wiggins (Sky), Belgian Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) and fellow Spaniard and Olympic champion, Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) leads the list of contenders to stop Contador. Adding to Contador’s major rivals are several dark horses consisting of Andy’s brother, Fränk Schleck (Leopard-Trek), Kazakh Alexander Vinokourov (Astana) and the four pronged attack of Team RadioShack’s two Americans, Chris Horner and Levi Leipheimer, Slovene Janez Brajkovic and German Andreas Klöden giving the challenge of Contador’s Tour defence a global feel.
Whether or not A. Schleck, Evans, Basso, and Klöden can make the step up from second and claim their first Tour win will be revealed by July 26th. For other GC candidates whom have merely podiumed or finished top five, this year’s Tour may not be the year for a surprise victor. Will Contador show the gruelling Giro was a mere stroll as he blasts the opposition to smithereens? Or is another Giro-Vuelta on the cards with Contador focusing on stage wins? This 98th Tour looks set to explode with genuine rivals threatening to disrupt a July becoming synonymous with Contador in yellow in Paris while the early battles to wear yellow and of course the maillot vert, the sprinters green jersey, the Maillot à pois rouges, the King of Mountains (KOM) climber’s polka dot jersey, the young rider classification, the white Jersey awarded to the highest placed rider less than 26 years of age at 1 January of the year. Alongside the jerseys are the team classification and the combativity award, prix de combativité along with stage win prizes and intermediate prizes. For many cyclists to arrive in Paris is the greatest prize of all. George Hincapie will be hoping to finish in Paris for a record equalling 16th time having ridden eight GC winning teams. He is the only cyclist to have ridden in all seven of Lance Armstrong’s Tour victories.
The introduction of new rules for both the sprinters and climber Jersey’s will affect their respective winners and could see an unlikely winner in both classifications. Flat stages will now only have one intermediate sprint allocating 20 points to the rider who crosses the line first with points then distributed to the next 14 riders to cross the line. The rule has changed from previous years in which classified flat stages contained 3 intermediate sprints with 6, 4 and 2 points allocated to only the first three riders across the line. Stage winners will also receive an extra five points than in 2010 for winning a stage being allocated 45 points for a win. The intention of this rule change is ensure sprinters will need to sprint twice during flat stages for a chance at the maillot vert. Also, this rule change will undoubtedly see a change in breakaway’s and race tactics on flat stages. It won’t be surprising if the usual occurrence of a breakaway being allowed to ride in front of the peloton for three quarters of stage before being caught in the final kilometres and a bunch sprint.
Breakaways could become the favoured attack for sprinters looking to win to maillot vert in this year’s edition. Thor Hushovd’s epic 80km break away on stage 17 through the Alps during the 2009 Tour to clinch the maillot vert may not be an anomaly as sprinters chase the 20 intermediate points on offer for a chase to win the jersey without stage wins. How this rule change will effect upon racing in the flat stages will be closely monitored as all those watching the race must be hoping flat stages become more interesting and varied than the typical early break that is caught in the final kilometres before a bunch sprint. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Highroad) would be one rider who may need to change his tactics if he wishes to pull on the green jersey in Paris. Once again stage victories may not be enough for him to walk away with the maillot but one more win would see Cavendish move in to the top ten stage winners in the Tour’s history.
The trend of GC riders have rarely wearing the sprinters jersey in recent years looks to continue however the same cannot be said of the maillot à pois. The rule changes that are in place for this year’s KOM title lean more toward a GC candidate than rewarding plucky mountain goats like last year’s winner, Anthony Charteau (Europcar). In recent years the KOM jersey has become more synonymous with doping than with climbing prowess. The Danish rider Michael Rasmussen who last raced the Tour in 2007 for Rabobank was kicked out of the Tour and sacked by his team for violating internal rules while holding both the Maillot jaune and the KOM jersey. Rasmussen was accused of lying of his whereabouts in June of that year and has not made an appearance at the Tour since. Following Rasmussen’s exit the KOM jersey passed on to the worthy shoulders of the Colombian Mauricio Soler (Movistar) who has shown glimpses of the form that won him Stage 9 of the 2007 tour and the KOM title. His defence of the polka dot jersey ended early the following year due a crash on the first stage of the 2008 Tour and has not been back to contest for a second climbers jersey. Unfortunately after showing form in the Tour de Suisse, winning Stage 2 to Crans-Montana, Soler crashed out on Stage 6 and once again his Tour comeback will be halted due to injury.
Bernard Kohl’s break out Tour in 2008 in which he won the Maillot à pois rouges and finishing 3rd was a false dawn for a new climbing specialist at the Tour. Kohl admitted to doping after the French paper L'Equipe claimed he had tested positive to the third-generation EPO, Continuous erythropoietin receptor activator (CERA). Admitting it was impossible to win at the professional level of cycling without doping, Kohl retired after tarnishing not only the 2008 edition of the Tour but once again, the climbers jersey. The 2009 Maillot à pois rouges winner, Franco Pellizotti was, like Kohl, found guilty of doping but unlike Kohl has not professed a guilty plea. His case was not resolved until March this year when the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) banned Pellizotti for 2 years, demanding he pay court costs along with a fine with his results from the 17th of May 2009 annulled removing his KOM win from his palmarès. No Maillot à pois rouges has been retroactively awarded as has been the case with other jersey winners who have been found guilty of doping for either the 2008 or 2009 KOM results. In 2008 the Tour winner, Carlos Sastre, was placed second while in 2009 the rider ranked second in KOM was Egoi Martínez.
Previously on mountain stages hors catégorie, first-category, or second-category climbs awarded double points if it was the last of the day. Only the summit stage finishes will award double points, specifically stage 12 ending at Luz Ardiden, stage 14 at the Plateau de Beille, stage 18 at the Col du Galibier, and stage 19 at L'Alpe d'Huez. Previously the first eight riders across a first-category climb scored points, as well as the first six across a second-category and the first four across a third-category. Only the first six across the line for any of these climbs will score points in the 2011 Tour. Finally, for fourth-category climbs points will only be allocated to the first rider across the line. Analysis of these rule changes has led to speculation that the KOM winner is more likely to be a GC contender and a repeat KOM title for Anthony Charteau looks unlikely. Regardless of whom KOM winner is, ASO, the Tour organisers must surely be wishing for a clean winner and a doping free Tour.
In this year’s edition of the Tour all 18 UCI Proteams have been invited along with 4 UCI Professional Continental teams who were all French based. Of the teams competing several will be making their debuts either as completely new teams or with new sponsorship and team name. Saur-Sojasun and Europcar will be making their debuts, representing French and UCI Continental Team debuts. It will be Saur-Sojasun's first ever Tour de France although Europcar, while its first under a new name, made appearances under its old name Bbox Bouygues Telecom and previous team names since its inception in 1985 as Systems U. Team Leopard-Trek will be making its first ever Tour appearance although the team will have plenty of Tour experience containing a majority of ex Saxo-Bank Members and GC hopeful Andy Schleck. Team Movistar will also be making a debut but like Europcar are a continuation of the Reynolds team established in 1980 which has won 7 Tour de Frances.
Pedro Delgado won the team's first tour in 1988 for Reynolds before Miguel Indurain and Óscar Pereiro’s Tour wins. Miguel Indurain won 5 consecutive Tour's from 1991-1995 along with a Giro d'Italia-Tour double in 1992 and 1993. Only the seventh rider to have done so and repeated only once since 1993 by Marco Pantini in 1998 Contador is surely looking to become the eight rider twin and Giro-Tour double and the first since Indurain in 1993. Óscar Pereiro was awarded the 2006 Tour riding for the Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears team after Floyd Landis's positive hormone testosterone test to the hormone epitestosterone (T/E ratio) following his epic Stage 17 120 km solo breakaway attack. Pereiro's absence due to retirement alongside Geox-TMC's non invitation for whom Carlos Sastre rides for ensures Contador will be the only rider in the peloton to have won a Tour de France. The lack of Tour winners due to suspension, retirement or non invitation may end up in Contador’s favour as he attempts to win his fourth Tour for a third team.
Alberto Contador comes into the Tour as defending champion and undoubtedly the favourite for a third successive Maillot Jaune. Wearing the number one placard in his title defence, Contador will prefer to spend as little time as possible in the yellow jersey before the race really heats up in the Pyrenees. At the Giro Contador was very clear about not wanting the responsibility of the Maglia rosa too early in the race. With the added fatigue of a tough Giro, Contador must surely be wishing to avoid the unneeded responsibility and pressure of defending the Maillot jaune daily. Although riders have expressed concern over the length of Contador's trial for his positive clenbuterol test on the rest day following stage 16 there has been little malice directed toward Contador but rather toward how his trial has been handed. Contador’s late decision to race the Tour following the postponement of his hearing till August is not the first time he has had little preparation for a Grand Tour. Contador's initial racing schedule was the Giro and the Vuelta a España, as he looked to add a second Giro-Vuelta double to his 2008 feat. In both the years that Contador has looked to a Giro-Vuelta double it has been due to his non invitation to the Tour. In 2008 as his team Astana were not invited to race which saw Contador race the Giro having only been told one prior before it started he was racing. Contador has expressed a wish to race all three Grand Tours in one season. If this is to be the year in which he does so, his decision will rest heavily upon his Tour performance.
Behind Contador is a list of rivals capable of a genuine challenge to his recent Tour domination. For Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso and Alexander Vinokourov this year signifies one of the last attempts at Tour Glory. It is Vinokourov’s final Tour and last chance at standing on the podium in yellow on the 24th of July. For Evans and Basso at 34 and 33 respectively, their chances of winning diminish each year with a new generation of GC riders coming through along with the expected dominance of Contador, who at 28, should win several more Grand Tours at a conservative estimate. Evans, Basso and Alexander Vinokourov represent the elder contenders at this race but nonetheless represent a risk for Contador and the younger GC rivals. Evans, Basso and Andy Schleck have all placed 2nd in the Tour and beside Contador, are the three riders closest to a Maillot jaune in the peloton this year. Evans 2nd place in 2007 at 23 seconds and 2nd place at 58 seconds to Carlos Sastre in 2008 has been followed by lacklustre results, suggesting his best Tour form may be behind him. Of the three Andy Schleck looks more the likely to cast off the bridesmaids tag and ascend to the top step of the podium bettering his consecutive 2nd places at the 2009 and 2010 Tour's. Basso's 2nd placing in 2005 seems an eon ago now, from a time of Lance and US Postal‘s domination and prior to Basso’s positive doping test.
BMC’s team for the Tour this year has been built entirely around Evans for his tilt at a debut Tour win. Likewise, Leopard-Trek’s team is focused on delivering A. Schleck to Paris safely clad in yellow. Although Basso has won two Giros’ since his second placing at the Tour, his Giro form has never materialised during July into Tour winning capabilities. Although Basso’s last four Grand Tour appearances are impressive, placing 4th in both the Giro and Vuelta in 2009 followed by the 2010 Giro before a disappointed 32nd at the Tour, 2011 looks to be bridge to far to Ivan Basso. Despite saying the Tour is major focus himself this year Basso’s nasty crash on Mt. Vesuvius during a training ride was clearly effecting him during the Critérium du Dauphiné.
The Critérium du Dauphiné is genuinely regarded as one of the two major warm up races for the Tour de France with the other being the Tour de Suisse. Winning either doesn't grantee a Tour win, both races in the past have served as indicators for how the major GC candidates are travelling. In 2011 the races were won by two GC candidates and rivals Bradley Wiggins and Levi Leipheimer. Along with the Dauphiné, Wiggins won the 2011 British national road race championships signaling the form he will be bringing to the Tour. Wiggins comfortably won the Dauphiné beating second place Cadel Evans and Alexander Vinokourov in third place. His win over potential GC Tour rivals at the Dauphiné will hopefully go some way to show Wiggins fourth place at the 2009 Tour was no fluke. Leipheimer’s last day win at the Tour de Suisse should likewise give an indication of the form he is carrying into the Tour as he spearheads RadioShack’s four pronged attack.
Andy Schleck has professed his desire to win the Tour numerous times. Forgetting 'Chaingate' from Stage 15 of last year's Tour, A. Schleck may have been heading into the Tour as the defending champion. The riders who joined Leopard-Trek following Andy and Frank Schleck's departure from Saxo-Bank bring much experience to A. Schleck’s campaign and have been rewarded with a Tour start. The recently crowned Swiss and Luxembourg champions, Fabian Cancellara and Fränk Schleck, will provide generous support alongside the evergreen Stuart O'Grady and the ageless Jens Voigt who will be on hand to provide support at any moment as super domestiques. Leopard-Trek will be looking to finish their first Grand Tour after the fatal crash of Wouter Weylandt during the Giro resulted in the team’s departure from that race. His death will provide any further stimulus that is otherwise lacking but more importantly Leopard-Trek will be riding in the memory of the Belgian. Along with the Maillot Jaune Andy Schleck has the chance to win a record fourth Young Rider’s jersey moving above Jan Ulrich in the record books as outright young rider classification winner.
Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck have been deemed the top two favourites for this year’s Tour for good reason. Whether or not they can repeat a third Contador Schleck one-two we will have to wait and see. Beside aforementioned favourites there are several more candidates for perhaps not the Maillot Jaune but more likely a podium place. Team RadioShack, riding their first Tour without Lance Armstrong, have named a team with four possible GC candidates who have shown good form leading into the Tour. The decision by RadioShack to focus on GC and team classification this year has lead to the omission of sprinter and three time maillot vert winner Robbie McEwen. McEwen’s omission from the team leaves RadioShack without a recognised sprinter but instead four GC candidates and five domestiques in support. The GC candidates are this year’s Amgen Tour of California winner, Chris Horner who at 39 will lead the RadioShack assault alongside Levi Leipheimer, 2010 Critérium du Dauphiné winner Janez Brajkovic and seasoned Tour performer Andreas Klöden. Of the four, Klöden appears the least likely to threaten for a podium position with his last major stage race win being the 2008 Tour de Romandie. Although 6th place at the 2009 Tour and 2nd place at this year’s Paris Nice suggests he may be warming up for a final tilt at Tour glory. Alongside Evans and Schleck, Klöden is the third cyclist in this year’s peloton to have finished second twice. As well as looking for podium positions RadioShack will also be keen to repeat their feats of last year by winning a successive team classification. Klöden is one of the four riders in this year’s peloton to have finished twice on two occasions.
With RadioShack’s four GC candidates it appears even a top twenty position in the Tour will be fought for tooth and nail. Riders such as Nicholas Roche (AG2R), Sandy Casar (FDJ), and Tony Martin (HTC-Highroad) who are targeting top ten finishes may in fact have to settle for top twenty finishes. Other favourites for the Maillot jaune, podium positions and top ten that have not been mentioned so far but are more than worthy of a sentence include the Olympic Road Race Champion Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Euskaltel-Euskadi), Robert Gesink (Rabobank) who has placed inside the top ten in the three Grand Tour’s he has finished out of the four he has started. The Omega Pharma-Lotto rider Jurgen Van Den Broeck will hoping to better his fifth placing at last year’s Tour and become the first Belgian since Joseph Bruyère in 1978 to finish fourth or better.
With Jurgen Van Den Broeck looking to wrap up the GC, Tom Boonen (Quick-Step) will look for his first stage win since 2007 and add to his six stage win tally. The newly crowned Belgian road race champion Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma-Lotto) will surely be looking to swap his highly sought after national jersey for the Maillot Jaune, looking at Stage 1 as a possible early win and depending on his team’s performance in the TTT on Stage 2, could see himself holding onto the jersey for a few days. His German team mate André Greipel could also be pulling on yellow early on during his Tour debut and would be surely looking to get one over his ex-team mate and sprint rival, Mark Cavendish. This year’s Tour will be Omega Pharma-Lotto’s last as the team will splitting into two at the conclusion of the season. It should come as no surprise if the team is one of the most aggressive over the Tour with its riders look to give good performances to ensure a contract for next season.
Any threat to A. Schleck’s fourth and third successive white jersey looks to be minimal. Geriant Thomas (Team Sky), Julien El Farès (Cofidis), Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland (Both Europcar), Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil (Movistar), Jakob Fuglsang (Leopard-Trek) and Roman Kreuziger (Astana) will all be looking to better their positions from last year’s Young Rider Classification. Roman Kreuziger will be feeling the effects this year’s Giro and his threat to the young rider classification may be minimal, riding for Vinokourov’s GC ambitions than his white jersey hopes. With no Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Doimo) the battle for the white jersey still will provide one of the many sub-plots at this year’s Tour although it will be hard to go past A. Schleck adding to his three young rider jerseys and continuing his streak of winning a jersey in every Grand Tour he has finished.
The battle for the Tour’s jerseys will once again provide an intriguing backdrop to the GC. Can Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre-ISD) repeat his Maillot vert win this year with the revised points rule? Can Cavendish turn his stage winning success into a Jersey? Will Thor Hushovd swap his World Champion jersey for the Maillot vert to win a third sprinters jersey? There are many questions regarding the sprinters in this year’s Tour although it appears one certainty is Cavendish adding to impressive tally of 15 stages in three Tours’. The battle for the Maillot vert certainly appears a safer conclusion with known contenders. With past winners Petacchi, Hushovd, and Boonen up against Cavendish, Greipel, José Joaquín Rojas (Movistar), Denis Galimzyanov (Katusha), Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Cervélo), Mathew Goss (HTC-Highroad) and Roman Feillu (Vacansoleil-DCM). This year’s points classification looks set to be a thrilling with high calibre sprinters and the new 20 point intermediate sprints. It certainly looks easier than the Maillot à pois rouges to predict which remains an unknown quality with the rule changes for this year’s Tour.
The 98th Tour de France appears to be one of the most enthralling races since Contador asserted his dominance over the Tour in 2007. Having won six of the seven Grand Tour’s he has entered, Contador is an alarming favourite for the Tour but how the Giro affects him throughout the race is sure to be closely scrutinised. If he were to lose, than surely his CAS hearing and the fatigue of the Giro would be highlighted as two major factors for only the second time he would have failed to win a Grand Tour. There are still circles of doubt surrounding Contador positive test and with his postponed hearing the Tour will not be over until his hearing has been finalised. If he wins the Tour and is found guilty there is a possibility his 2010 Tour title, 2010 Giro d’Italia and 2011 Tour could very well be awarded to Andy Schleck and Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) and whoever finishes behind him at this year’s Tour. At this point in time there little point in speculating Contador’s future as the spectacle of the Tour de France awaits in all its glory and nothing can be done regarding Contador until August.
The Tour begins in a few days and by the evening of the 25th of July we will know the winner of the 2011 Tour de France. All the questioned raised should hopefully have been answered as we can look back at the highs and lows and begin the count once again for another Tour. Will Andy Schleck become the first Luxembourger Charly Gaul in 1958 and the third since Nicolas Frantz in 1928 to win the Tour with Contador submitting to the Bourger as the steak fiasco of 2010 recedes into memory. Whatever may be the outcome of the 2011 Tour the final words are for the peloton, bon courage!
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