A preview of the 98th 2011 Tour de France from Saturday 2nd July to Sunday 24th July

                                 Originally written on Wednesday 29 June 2011

For the Third time in the Tour de France’s history the race will depart from Vendee. The Grand Depart is a flat 191.5km from Passage du Gois to Mont des Alouettes. La Grande Boucle than spends the first week in the Departments of Vendee, Brittany, Finistère, Côtes-d'Armor, and Calvados in the North West. The Tour than turns to the South making its way through the Massif Central where the peloton will face the first mountain stages of the Tour. Although the first real test for this year’s General Classification (GC) will be further south in the Pyrenees as the contenders for the Maillot Jaune emerge. Three stages in the Pyrenees and a rest day precede four mountain stages in the Alps as the Tour winds up and the final GC standing become clear. An individual time trial (ITT) will sort out any last positions on the GC on an almost identical Grenoble course as the one used by this year’s Critérium du Dauphiné. Following the ITT the rider atop the GC will be clad in yellow enjoying the 95 km parade from Creteil into Paris along Champs-Élysées allowing the sprinters who have survived the Alps a final chance of glory upon the most beautiful avenue in the world in the 98th Tour de France. Alberto Contador will be defending the title he won by 39 seconds last year after his hearing for a positive test during last year’s Tour was postponed till August giving him the chance to try for a third successful Tour.

Contador’s grueling Giro d’Italia in May has left the Saxo Bank- Sunguard rider still feeling the effects a month later. Contador’s performance in Tour will be measured against his hearing and Giro win as his rival’s wanting a fair race must also be wishing a Giro-Tour is beyond the Spaniard in 2011. Contador’s biggest rivals for the his fourth Tour are two riders who have finished twice beyond him, once, Australian Cadel Evans (BMC), and twice, Luxembourger Andy Schleck (Leopard-Trek). Another 2nd place finisher is 2010 Giro winner, Italian Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale) who along with the Dutchmen Robert Gesink (Rabobank), newly crowned British national champion Bradley Wiggins (Sky), Belgian Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) and fellow Spaniard and Olympic champion, Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) leads the list of contenders to stop Contador. Adding to Contador’s major rivals are several dark horses consisting of Andy’s brother, Fränk Schleck (Leopard-Trek), Kazakh Alexander Vinokourov (Astana) and the four pronged attack of Team RadioShack’s two Americans, Chris Horner and Levi Leipheimer, Slovene Janez Brajkovic and German Andreas Klöden giving the challenge of Contador’s Tour defence a global feel.

Whether or not A. Schleck, Evans, Basso, and Klöden can make the step up from second and claim their first Tour win will be revealed by July 26th. For other GC candidates whom have merely podiumed or finished top five, this year’s Tour may not be the year for a surprise victor. Will Contador show the gruelling Giro was a mere stroll as he blasts the opposition to smithereens? Or is another Giro-Vuelta on the cards with Contador focusing on stage wins? This 98th Tour looks set to explode with genuine rivals threatening to disrupt a July becoming synonymous with Contador in yellow in Paris while the early battles to wear yellow and of course the maillot vert, the sprinters green jersey, the Maillot à pois rouges, the King of Mountains (KOM) climber’s polka dot jersey, the young rider classification, the white Jersey awarded to the highest placed rider less than 26 years of age at 1 January of the year. Alongside the jerseys are the team classification and the combativity award, prix de combativité along with stage win prizes and intermediate prizes. For many cyclists to arrive in Paris is the greatest prize of all. George Hincapie will be hoping to finish in Paris for a record equalling 16th time having ridden eight GC winning teams. He is the only cyclist to have ridden in all seven of Lance Armstrong’s Tour victories.

The introduction of new rules for both the sprinters and climber Jersey’s will affect their respective winners and could see an unlikely winner in both classifications. Flat stages will now only have one intermediate sprint allocating 20 points to the rider who crosses the line first with points then distributed to the next 14 riders to cross the line. The rule has changed from previous years in which classified flat stages contained 3 intermediate sprints with 6, 4 and 2 points allocated to only the first three riders across the line. Stage winners will also receive an extra five points than in 2010 for winning a stage being allocated 45 points for a win. The intention of this rule change is ensure sprinters will need to sprint twice during flat stages for a chance at the maillot vert. Also, this rule change will undoubtedly see a change in breakaway’s and race tactics on flat stages. It won’t be surprising if the usual occurrence of a breakaway being allowed to ride in front of the peloton for three quarters of stage before being caught in the final kilometres and a bunch sprint. 


Breakaways could become the favoured attack for sprinters looking to win to maillot vert in this year’s edition. Thor Hushovd’s epic 80km break away on stage 17 through the Alps during the 2009 Tour to clinch the maillot vert may not be an anomaly as sprinters chase the 20 intermediate points on offer for a chase to win the jersey without stage wins. How this rule change will effect upon racing in the flat stages will be closely monitored as all those watching the race must be hoping flat stages become more interesting and varied than the typical early break that is caught in the final kilometres before a bunch sprint. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Highroad) would be one rider who may need to change his tactics if he wishes to pull on the green jersey in Paris. Once again stage victories may not be enough for him to walk away with the maillot but one more win would see Cavendish move in to the top ten stage winners in the Tour’s history.

The trend of GC riders have rarely wearing the sprinters jersey in recent years looks to continue however the same cannot be said of the maillot à pois. The rule changes that are in place for this year’s KOM title lean more toward a GC candidate than rewarding plucky mountain goats like last year’s winner, Anthony Charteau (Europcar). In recent years the KOM jersey has become more synonymous with doping than with climbing prowess. The Danish rider Michael Rasmussen who last raced the Tour in 2007 for Rabobank was kicked out of the Tour and sacked by his team for violating internal rules while holding both the Maillot jaune and the KOM jersey. Rasmussen was accused of lying of his whereabouts in June of that year and has not made an appearance at the Tour since. Following Rasmussen’s exit the KOM jersey passed on to the worthy shoulders of the Colombian Mauricio Soler (Movistar) who has shown glimpses of the form that won him Stage 9 of the 2007 tour and the KOM title. His defence of the polka dot jersey ended early the following year due a crash on the first stage of the 2008 Tour and has not been back to contest for a second climbers jersey. Unfortunately after showing form in the Tour de Suisse, winning Stage 2 to Crans-Montana, Soler crashed out on Stage 6 and once again his Tour comeback will be halted due to injury.

Bernard Kohl’s break out Tour in 2008 in which he won the Maillot à pois rouges and finishing 3rd was a false dawn for a new climbing specialist at the Tour. Kohl admitted to doping after the French paper L'Equipe claimed he had tested positive to the third-generation EPO, Continuous erythropoietin receptor activator (CERA). Admitting it was impossible to win at the professional level of cycling without doping, Kohl retired after tarnishing not only the 2008 edition of the Tour but once again, the climbers jersey. The 2009 Maillot à pois rouges winner, Franco Pellizotti was, like Kohl, found guilty of doping but unlike Kohl has not professed a guilty plea. His case was not resolved until March this year when the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) banned Pellizotti for 2 years, demanding he pay court costs along with a fine with his results from the 17th of May 2009 annulled removing his KOM win from his palmarès. No Maillot à pois rouges has been retroactively awarded as has been the case with other jersey winners who have been found guilty of doping for either the 2008 or 2009 KOM results. In 2008 the Tour winner, Carlos Sastre, was placed second while in 2009 the rider ranked second in KOM was Egoi Martínez.

Previously on mountain stages hors catégorie, first-category, or second-category climbs awarded double points if it was the last of the day. Only the summit stage finishes will award double points, specifically stage 12 ending at Luz Ardiden, stage 14 at the Plateau de Beille, stage 18 at the Col du Galibier, and stage 19 at L'Alpe d'Huez. Previously the first eight riders across a first-category climb scored points, as well as the first six across a second-category and the first four across a third-category. Only the first six across the line for any of these climbs will score points in the 2011 Tour. Finally, for fourth-category climbs points will only be allocated to the first rider across the line. Analysis of these rule changes has led to speculation that the KOM winner is more likely to be a GC contender and a repeat KOM title for Anthony Charteau looks unlikely. Regardless of whom KOM winner is, ASO, the Tour organisers must surely be wishing for a clean winner and a doping free Tour.

In this year’s edition of the Tour all 18 UCI Proteams have been invited along with 4 UCI Professional Continental teams who were all French based. Of the teams competing several will be making their debuts either as completely new teams or with new sponsorship and team name. Saur-Sojasun and Europcar will be making their debuts, representing French and UCI Continental Team debuts. It will be Saur-Sojasun's first ever Tour de France although Europcar, while its first under a new name, made appearances under its old name Bbox Bouygues Telecom and previous team names since its inception in 1985 as Systems U. Team Leopard-Trek will be making its first ever Tour appearance although the team will have plenty of Tour experience containing a majority of ex Saxo-Bank Members and GC hopeful Andy Schleck. Team Movistar will also be making a debut but like Europcar are a continuation of the Reynolds team established in 1980 which has won 7 Tour de Frances.


Pedro Delgado won the team's first tour in 1988 for Reynolds before Miguel Indurain and Óscar Pereiro’s Tour wins. Miguel Indurain won 5 consecutive Tour's from 1991-1995 along with a Giro d'Italia-Tour double in 1992 and 1993. Only the seventh rider to have done so and repeated only once since 1993 by Marco Pantini in 1998 Contador is surely looking to become the eight rider twin and Giro-Tour double and the first since Indurain in 1993. Óscar Pereiro was awarded the 2006 Tour riding for the Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears team after Floyd Landis's positive hormone testosterone test to the hormone epitestosterone (T/E ratio) following his epic Stage 17 120 km solo breakaway attack. Pereiro's absence due to retirement alongside Geox-TMC's non invitation for whom Carlos Sastre rides for ensures Contador will be the only rider in the peloton to have won a Tour de France. The lack of Tour winners due to suspension, retirement or non invitation may end up in Contador’s favour as he attempts to win his fourth Tour for a third team.

Alberto Contador comes into the Tour as defending champion and undoubtedly the favourite for a third successive Maillot Jaune. Wearing the number one placard in his title defence, Contador will prefer to spend as little time as possible in the yellow jersey before the race really heats up in the Pyrenees. At the Giro Contador was very clear about not wanting the responsibility of the Maglia rosa too early in the race. With the added fatigue of a tough Giro, Contador must surely be wishing to avoid the unneeded responsibility and pressure of defending the Maillot jaune daily. Although riders have expressed concern over the length of Contador's trial for his positive clenbuterol test on the rest day following stage 16 there has been little malice directed toward Contador but rather toward how his trial has been handed. Contador’s late decision to race the Tour following the postponement of his hearing till August is not the first time he has had little preparation for a Grand Tour. Contador's initial racing schedule was the Giro and the Vuelta a España, as he looked to add a second Giro-Vuelta double to his 2008 feat. In both the years that Contador has looked to a Giro-Vuelta double it has been due to his non invitation to the Tour. In 2008 as his team Astana were not invited to race which saw Contador race the Giro having only been told one prior before it started he was racing. Contador has expressed a wish to race all three Grand Tours in one season. If this is to be the year in which he does so, his decision will rest heavily upon his Tour performance.

Behind Contador is a list of rivals capable of a genuine challenge to his recent Tour domination. For Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso and Alexander Vinokourov this year signifies one of the last attempts at Tour Glory. It is Vinokourov’s final Tour and last chance at standing on the podium in yellow on the 24th of July. For Evans and Basso at 34 and 33 respectively, their chances of winning diminish each year with a new generation of GC riders coming through along with the expected dominance of Contador, who at 28, should win several more Grand Tours at a conservative estimate. Evans, Basso and Alexander Vinokourov represent the elder contenders at this race but nonetheless represent a risk for Contador and the younger GC rivals. Evans, Basso and Andy Schleck have all placed 2nd in the Tour and beside Contador, are the three riders closest to a Maillot jaune in the peloton this year. Evans 2nd place in 2007 at 23 seconds and 2nd place at 58 seconds to Carlos Sastre in 2008 has been followed by lacklustre results, suggesting his best Tour form may be behind him. Of the three Andy Schleck looks more the likely to cast off the bridesmaids tag and ascend to the top step of the podium bettering his consecutive 2nd places at the 2009 and 2010 Tour's. Basso's 2nd placing in 2005 seems an eon ago now, from a time of Lance and US Postal‘s domination and prior to Basso’s positive doping test.


BMC’s team for the Tour this year has been built entirely around Evans for his tilt at a debut Tour win. Likewise, Leopard-Trek’s team is focused on delivering A. Schleck to Paris safely clad in yellow. Although Basso has won two Giros’ since his second placing at the Tour, his Giro form has never materialised during July into Tour winning capabilities. Although Basso’s last four Grand Tour appearances are impressive, placing 4th in both the Giro and Vuelta in 2009 followed by the 2010 Giro before a disappointed 32nd at the Tour, 2011 looks to be bridge to far to Ivan Basso. Despite saying the Tour is major focus himself this year Basso’s nasty crash on Mt. Vesuvius during a training ride was clearly effecting him during the Critérium du Dauphiné.

The Critérium du Dauphiné is genuinely regarded as one of the two major warm up races for the Tour de France with the other being the Tour de Suisse. Winning either doesn't grantee a Tour win, both races in the past have served as indicators for how the major GC candidates are travelling. In 2011 the races were won by two GC candidates and rivals Bradley Wiggins and Levi Leipheimer. Along with the Dauphiné, Wiggins won the 2011 British national road race championships signaling the form he will be bringing to the Tour. Wiggins comfortably won the Dauphiné beating second place Cadel Evans and Alexander Vinokourov in third place. His win over potential GC Tour rivals at the Dauphiné will hopefully go some way to show Wiggins fourth place at the 2009 Tour was no fluke. Leipheimer’s last day win at the Tour de Suisse should likewise give an indication of the form he is carrying into the Tour as he spearheads RadioShack’s four pronged attack.

Andy Schleck has professed his desire to win the Tour numerous times. Forgetting 'Chaingate' from Stage 15 of last year's Tour, A. Schleck may have been heading into the Tour as the defending champion. The riders who joined Leopard-Trek following Andy and Frank Schleck's departure from Saxo-Bank bring much experience to A. Schleck’s campaign and have been rewarded with a Tour start. The recently crowned Swiss and Luxembourg champions, Fabian Cancellara and Fränk Schleck, will provide generous support alongside the evergreen Stuart O'Grady and the ageless Jens Voigt who will be on hand to provide support at any moment as super domestiques. Leopard-Trek will be looking to finish their first Grand Tour after the fatal crash of Wouter Weylandt during the Giro resulted in the team’s departure from that race. His death will provide any further stimulus that is otherwise lacking but more importantly Leopard-Trek will be riding in the memory of the Belgian. Along with the Maillot Jaune Andy Schleck has the chance to win a record fourth Young Rider’s jersey moving above Jan Ulrich in the record books as outright young rider classification winner.

Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck have been deemed the top two favourites for this year’s Tour for good reason. Whether or not they can repeat a third Contador Schleck one-two we will have to wait and see. Beside aforementioned favourites there are several more candidates for perhaps not the Maillot Jaune but more likely a podium place. Team RadioShack, riding their first Tour without Lance Armstrong, have named a team with four possible GC candidates who have shown good form leading into the Tour. The decision by RadioShack to focus on GC and team classification this year has lead to the omission of sprinter and three time maillot vert winner Robbie McEwen. McEwen’s omission from the team leaves RadioShack without a recognised sprinter but instead four GC candidates and five domestiques in support. The GC candidates are this year’s Amgen Tour of California winner, Chris Horner who at 39 will lead the RadioShack assault alongside Levi Leipheimer, 2010 Critérium du Dauphiné winner Janez Brajkovic and seasoned Tour performer Andreas Klöden. Of the four, Klöden appears the least likely to threaten for a podium position with his last major stage race win being the 2008 Tour de Romandie. Although 6th place at the 2009 Tour and 2nd place at this year’s Paris Nice suggests he may be warming up for a final tilt at Tour glory. Alongside Evans and Schleck, Klöden is the third cyclist in this year’s peloton to have finished second twice. As well as looking for podium positions RadioShack will also be keen to repeat their feats of last year by winning a successive team classification. Klöden is one of the four riders in this year’s peloton to have finished twice on two occasions.

With RadioShack’s four GC candidates it appears even a top twenty position in the Tour will be fought for tooth and nail. Riders such as Nicholas Roche (AG2R), Sandy Casar (FDJ), and Tony Martin (HTC-Highroad) who are targeting top ten finishes may in fact have to settle for top twenty finishes. Other favourites for the Maillot jaune, podium positions and top ten that have not been mentioned so far but are more than worthy of a sentence include the Olympic Road Race Champion Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Euskaltel-Euskadi), Robert Gesink (Rabobank) who has placed inside the top ten in the three Grand Tour’s he has finished out of the four he has started. The Omega Pharma-Lotto rider Jurgen Van Den Broeck will hoping to better his fifth placing at last year’s Tour and become the first Belgian since Joseph Bruyère in 1978 to finish fourth or better.

With Jurgen Van Den Broeck looking to wrap up the GC, Tom Boonen (Quick-Step) will look for his first stage win since 2007 and add to his six stage win tally. The newly crowned Belgian road race champion Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma-Lotto) will surely be looking to swap his highly sought after national jersey for the Maillot Jaune, looking at Stage 1 as a possible early win and depending on his team’s performance in the TTT on Stage 2, could see himself holding onto the jersey for a few days. His German team mate André Greipel could also be pulling on yellow early on during his Tour debut and would be surely looking to get one over his ex-team mate and sprint rival, Mark Cavendish. This year’s Tour will be Omega Pharma-Lotto’s last as the team will splitting into two at the conclusion of the season. It should come as no surprise if the team is one of the most aggressive over the Tour with its riders look to give good performances to ensure a contract for next season.

Any threat to A. Schleck’s fourth and third successive white jersey looks to be minimal. Geriant Thomas (Team Sky), Julien El Farès (Cofidis), Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland (Both Europcar), Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil (Movistar), Jakob Fuglsang (Leopard-Trek) and Roman Kreuziger (Astana) will all be looking to better their positions from last year’s Young Rider Classification. Roman Kreuziger will be feeling the effects this year’s Giro and his threat to the young rider classification may be minimal, riding for Vinokourov’s GC ambitions than his white jersey hopes. With no Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Doimo) the battle for the white jersey still will provide one of the many sub-plots at this year’s Tour although it will be hard to go past A. Schleck adding to his three young rider jerseys and continuing his streak of winning a jersey in every Grand Tour he has finished.

The battle for the Tour’s jerseys will once again provide an intriguing backdrop to the GC. Can Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre-ISD) repeat his Maillot vert win this year with the revised points rule? Can Cavendish turn his stage winning success into a Jersey? Will Thor Hushovd swap his World Champion jersey for the Maillot vert to win a third sprinters jersey? There are many questions regarding the sprinters in this year’s Tour although it appears one certainty is Cavendish adding to impressive tally of 15 stages in three Tours’. The battle for the Maillot vert certainly appears a safer conclusion with known contenders. With past winners Petacchi, Hushovd, and Boonen up against Cavendish, Greipel, José Joaquín Rojas (Movistar), Denis Galimzyanov (Katusha), Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Cervélo), Mathew Goss (HTC-Highroad) and Roman Feillu (Vacansoleil-DCM). This year’s points classification looks set to be a thrilling with high calibre sprinters and the new 20 point intermediate sprints. It certainly looks easier than the Maillot à pois rouges to predict which remains an unknown quality with the rule changes for this year’s Tour.

The 98th Tour de France appears to be one of the most enthralling races since Contador asserted his dominance over the Tour in 2007. Having won six of the seven Grand Tour’s he has entered, Contador is an alarming favourite for the Tour but how the Giro affects him throughout the race is sure to be closely scrutinised. If he were to lose, than surely his CAS hearing and the fatigue of the Giro would be highlighted as two major factors for only the second time he would have failed to win a Grand Tour. There are still circles of doubt surrounding Contador positive test and with his postponed hearing the Tour will not be over until his hearing has been finalised. If he wins the Tour and is found guilty there is a possibility his 2010 Tour title, 2010 Giro d’Italia and 2011 Tour could very well be awarded to Andy Schleck and Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) and whoever finishes behind him at this year’s Tour. At this point in time there little point in speculating Contador’s future as the spectacle of the Tour de France awaits in all its glory and nothing can be done regarding Contador until August.

The Tour begins in a few days and by the evening of the 25th of July we will know the winner of the 2011 Tour de France. All the questioned raised should hopefully have been answered as we can look back at the highs and lows and begin the count once again for another Tour. Will Andy Schleck become the first Luxembourger Charly Gaul in 1958 and the third since Nicolas Frantz in 1928 to win the Tour with Contador submitting to the Bourger as the steak fiasco of 2010 recedes into memory. Whatever may be the outcome of the 2011 Tour the final words are for the peloton, bon courage!

Astana

2 outta 3 ain't bad...

Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2012

Whose up for the last of the Ardennes in 2012? Nissan-Radioshack look like they'll play a key role in race in order for one the Schlecks to take home the win. Katusha will be looking to make it two wins out of three and with Rodriguez they could do it. BMC will be looking for a better finish after several podiums placing by Ballan and Gilbert. Chavanel will lead the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team who'll be rapt with another Classics win to go with Boonen's swag.

A repeat of last years podium could be likely. It probably won't be Gilbert followed home by the Schelcks. the finale of last year's race is not one they would be keen to replicate. Andy has one Liège-Bastogne-Liège win already while Frank will be looking to win a second Ardennes classics to go with his Amstel Gold Race win in 2006.

No Amstel for Katusha but a Classics Win Looks Close

Watch out for a Spanish Katusha win either tonight or on Sunday at liege. Katusha looked the goods at Amstel but come up short. Oscar Freire will have gained confidence not only for the 2 remaining Ardennes classics but remember, the Worlds this year will be Ardennes like.  This year the Ardennes has that little more prestige as riders look to do a quadruple taking home a rainbow jersey as well.

Simon Gerrans may take home a second classics win this week, Gilbert showed his form is coming back but backing a Katusha win may pay dividends.

Denis Galimzyanov and Enrico Gasparotto

Contrasting Fortunes

Two riders whose two different results may become defining moments not only this season but in their careers. Enrico Gasparotto won the Amstel Gold Race in a thrilling finale coming over the top of a fading Gilbert attack, outsprinting Jelle Vanendert and Peter Sagan. The Italian took home his biggest win. In comparison Russian Sprinter Denis Galimzyanov has tested to EPO. A B sample can be requested to be tested but in the meantime it is another doping scandal to hit cycling and another rider from Katusha who has tested positive.

Denis Galimzyanov's positive test will be beneficial to all the cycling commentators out there. His name is one of the most unpronounceable names in the peloton. The Ardennes second classic is coming up with a changing complexion. The eastern European teams (Although Astana is based in Switzerland) have had contrasting results and respectively, these results will impact the peloton. On the road, Astana will be watched a little more closely while Katusha will be looking for a win to deflect some of the negative publicity following the positive EPO test.

A Week in the Ardennes

Coming up next week will be Phil Gilbert's triple defense of the Ardennes classics that he won last year. A clean sweep looks unlikely again this year after indifferent form following the move to BMC but Gilbert is not a rider who can be easily written off. There will be several challengers to Gilbert this season and of those, Peter Sagan looks like a real threat. The 22 year old Slovakian National Champion could land a double punch with team mate Vincenzo Nibali at his side. However Cadel Evans could prove to be the ace in BMC's hand riding as a super domestique. Closer to the Ardennes there will be greater signs of who is in form and once teams are announced, who'll have the strongest support. Tom Boonen has already pulled out of the Amstel Gold Race and his presence will be missed. Andy Schleck has a Liège–Bastogne–Liège win to his name along with top-ten finishes at Amstel and La Flèche Wallonne. Again, like Gilbert, Schleck has had an indifferent beginning to 2012 but it is his schedule to peak in April for the Ardennes before peaking again for Le Tour. Simon Gerrans in another rider who could challenge for a win, and his 2nd classics win this year following his Milan-San Remo win.

A longer article will appear later in the week/early next week looking at the favourites and major talking points leading into the Ardennes.

Boonen Doubles up on Cobbled Double

Boonen's 2012 Paris-Roubaix Extravaganza

Paris-Roubaix once again proved a happy hunting ground for tom Boonen. Repeating his heroics of 2005 in which he won De Ronde and Paris-Roubaix Boonen has asserted his dominance as not only a great among his peers, but a great among the greats. His feats at De Ronde last weekend saw him equal the record number of wins with 3. At Paris-Roubaix he went one better and won four. By doing so he equalled a record held since the 1970s by compatriot Rodger De Vlaeminck. At 31 Boonen should have several more cobbled classics in his legs. If he manages to win five Ronde’s and five Paris-Roubaix, it would be an amazing feat. but a feat that looks a distinct possibility.

Boonen’s attack on Sunday caught his rivals unawares who then decided that such an audacious attack would probably not be successful. Sky had four riders in the chase group and yet could not even pull back Boonen, let alone catch him. Boonen’s attack was reminiscent of his great Swiss rival Fabian Cancellara by attacking over 50kms away and soloing to victory. Boonen in the past had expressed a desire to branch into ITT’s after what could be said was a flat point in his career.  In 2009 Boonen suggested the 2010 world championships in Australia would be a goal of his. Since Boonen won no ITT’s he has become more focused on the cobbles and been duly rewarded for his focus and hard work. A move back from Monaco to Belgium had been seen by some a shift in Boonen’s recognition of taking cycling seriously as profession. The cocaine years were perhaps a wakeup call to Tommeke who blessed with natural talent appeared dissatisfied with the sport as wins became formalities without excitement or joy.

The second double on the cobbles is a first in cycling history. Several riders have done the double before and Cancellara came close last year with podium placings at De Ronde and Roubaix but Boonen has quite rightly shown that his cobbled form is almost unmatchable. As suggested in prior post, the race was Boonen’s to lose. He would have to race and win but how he did so would be of interest. What made the race so exciting was that Boonen broke away with teammate Niki Terpstra and stayed away. It was a move that didn’t need to be pulled off. Boonen could have stayed in the select breakaway and sprinted for the win. Instead he rode with panache to prove his four wins are of pure class. During the final kms Boonen made two gestures to the camera showing his relaxed state. Firstly pointing to the camera with his index finger implying he was number one he then held up four fingers in acknowledgement that the race was his that day. By winning he would also match the Roubaix record. Soloing away let Boonen not only celebrate before entering the velodrome but also reflect upon his win as equalling the record, writing another page of cycling history.

Had Cancellara been racing on Sunday there may have been a phenomenal finale to the race had he and Boonen gone together. In the past it has been Cancellara who has left Boonen eating his dust; perhaps Boonen could have reversed that trend. However there is little point in analysing counter factual history so instead, let’s salute Boonen for his gusto ride and celebrate his glorious return to form in the cobbled classics. Should Boonen show this form later in the year GC stages, sprinters classifications and perhaps another road world championship could be his by the end of 2012.

Paris Roubaix 2012 Preview

Paris Roubaix

An Easter in Hell

Eagerly awaited as the third of five monuments in the cycling calendar, Paris-Roubaix is sure to be a special race once again. The 110^th edition will be raced over 257.5km’s on Easter Sunday with the outright favourite Tom Boonen looking to win the race for a 4^th time.  If Boonen goes on to win it will be his second Ronde-Roubaix double after his success season in 2005. Tied on three wins with some of the sports superstars such as Eddy Merckx and Johan Museeuw, a 4^th win would take him level with compatriot Rodger De Vlaeminck who won four editions of the race in the 1970s. There will be several riders capable of stopping Tommeke in Sunday but they will be starting as second tier favourites.  A crash by Boonen may be the only way to stop the Belgian from rewriting the history books, again.

Known affectionately as the Hell of the North, Paris-Roubaix harks back to the beginnings of professional cycling. The cobbled sections, or pavé, are one of the distinguishing features of the race proving thrills and spills for riders and spectators. When the pavés are wet the race becomes more spectacular as the fighting spirit and courage of the riders shone through.  Covered head to toe in mud while racing along the pavé at speeds exceeding 60kms is only a trivial matter, positioning will be a far more important  though in the riders mins than paying attention to some mud on the face. A crucial stage in the race is always the entry into the Trouée d'Arenberg. At 2400 meters in length, this section of pavé the Trouée d'Arenberg section was left out in 2005 after it was considered unsafe for racing. Earlier in the year there were fears that Trouée d'Arenberg would be left out again after excessive moss and plant growth had rendered the pavé unsuitable for racing. The entry into the Arenberg is often fraught with the select riders jostling for position to ensure the entry the forest in the first positions who exits the 2.4kms in the leading positions is usually an indication of who will finish on the podium.  Introduced in 1968 the Arenberg is one if the defining sections of pavé in the race. Not the longest section of the pavé but definitely one the hardest it is arguably an inclusion for the benefit of spectators than the riders. Filippo Pozzato is one rider who has expressed concerns over its inclusion. However with the amount of pavé taken home by keen spectators, his view could be said to be the minority.

The pavé vary in length, difficulty and elevation in the race. There will be a total of 51.5km s of pavé in the 2012 race. The idiosyncrasies of the pavé enhance the race with the riders at times only just recovering between sections of pavé before reaching another. Although the parcours of the race continually change depending on the condition of roads and pavé sections the most decisive sections are generally regarded as the aforementioned Trouée d'Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle (3kms in length) and the Carrefour L’Arbre which in the final kilometres of race is quite often the deciding factor in the race at 2.1kms. These three sections are giving the hardest rating of five stars which is calculated through the conditions of the pavé, length and their position in the race. The pavé of the Trouée d'Arenberg section where first laid during the reign of the Napoleon I however their history has become entwined with cycling. The historical depth of the race is a sign of its appeal as much more than a bicycle race. It is a race that encompasses European and French history and in doing so shows the heroic qualities of Napoleon are now found in the lucky cyclists who race on the pavé each year.

The other two five star pavé sections are either side of the Trouée d’Arenberg in length. Of the three, Mons-en-Pévèle is the longest and the Carrefour L’Arbre the shortest. The Mons-en-Pévèle section begins with what can be referred to as regular pavé or at least ‘good condition’ pavé before the section becomes harder with irregular pavé in quite often muddy conditions. With several turns in this section bike handling is put the ultimate test. After departing the Mons-en-Pévèle the riders have to endure 9 more sections of pavé before they enter the velodrome at Roubaix and the hardest of those remaining sections is the Carrefour L’Arbre. As the 4^th last section of pavé it is packed with spectators hoping for one final view of the pavé. In 2006 Stuart O’Grady became the first Australian to win the race, led the peloton through the Carrefour L’Arbre soloing away to the win. One year later O’Grady’s teammate Fabian Cancellara emulated his move by also riding solo over this section of the pavé. There is a variety of pavé condition on this section varying from almost atrocious pavé to those in good conditions in equal distribution across the road. After the Carrefour L’Arbre the remaining sections of pavé are rated two and one stars and the race can no longer be decided by the pavé.

Following Boonen’s sprint victory over Pozzato at De Ronde, Alessandro Ballan this week has said that Pozzato cannot beat Boonen in a sprint. Boonen has tried to deflect the talk of favouritism by talking up his rivals but if the race comes down to a sprint in the velodrome between Boonen and his rivals, a fourth title looks likely to be his. One rider capable of matching Boonen in a sprint after 250kms is Ballan’s teammate Thor Hushovd. The 2010 world champion had consecutive podium finishes in 2009-2010 finishing second and third. Keen to repay the faith BMC has placed in him after his move from Garmin-Cervélo at the end of year’s season, the Norwegian will hoping for a successful Paris-Roubaix with BMC. Ballan proved he is on form after his 3^rd placing at De Ronde. However he may find Hushovd as the protected rider on Sunday although that shouldn’t hinder the Italian from a top ten position. Greg Van Avermaet showed that in BMC’s expensively assembled Classics team that a high finish is possible without being a protected rider. The 3^rd and 4^th finishes of Ballan and Van Avermaet respectively could a sign of the things to come from BMC at Roubaix with Hushovd the third ace in their hand. The foregone conclusion of Boonen walking away with anther cobble may not be so if BMC are on fire, never mind the form of Pozzato.

Garmin-Barracuda will be looking to defend Johan Vansummeren’s title after he rode away to win by 19 seconds last year. It appears unlikely that the 6’6’ Belgian will repeat his heroics of last year but a high finish would still be a positive result. On the American team, Heinrich Haussler will be looking for a top ten finish as attempts to once again recapture his scintillating form of 2009. Omega Pharma-Quickstep, Garmin-Barracuda and BMC will have three of the strongest teams on Easter Sunday and a podium comprising riders from each of the respective teams could be a reflection of their strength in numbers. Nissan Radioshack Leopard’s loss of Cancellara has shown their lack of strength and depth of alternatives Classics riders.  Greenedge will be keen to put in a god showing in its Paris-Roubaix debut but they may just be making up numbers at the conclusion of the race. After a successful introduction to the Pro Tour anything positive at Paris-Roubaix would be another boost for the team. With Simon Gerrans looking ahead to the Ardennes later this month, several Greenedge riders may just be riding to enjoy the monument gathering more experience as a team on the world circuit as the team will begin to look ahead to the Giro and Le Tour. The seven wild card teams this year may pull of a surprise top ten but their entry into the race will for some, be enough in itself as they enjoy the prestige of riding Paris-Roubaix.

This is Boonen’s race to lose. The pavé will play a deciding factor in the race with the three five star rated sections most probably playing the biggest roles of the pavé. The tactics of the teams will surely be how to stop Boonen but with the strength of Omega Pharma-Quickstep already on display after flexing their muscles at De Ronde, it might not be such an easy task. BMC and Garmin-Barracuda look to have strong teams and will influence the outcome of the race. Otherwise it is really individual riders rather than teams who’ll play decisive cards. If a rider manages to make a successful break it’ll be a big ballsy move. Without a strong Cancellara to blow the race apart there may be less tired bodies and a result several riders could enter the velodrome together. If Boonen was to be in that group, watch out, if Hushovd isn’t there with him, Boonen taking home a fourth cobble looks likely. It is not a foregone conclusion that Boonen will win. He still has to race. However as De Ronde showed, a little bit of bad luck can change the entire complexion of the race and the entire spring Classics with it. Isolating Boonen may be the prevailing tactic of the day but any weakness of Boonen looks trivial.

The Teams for Paris-Roubaix are yet to be finalised. Information of the 2012 route and a map can be found at http://www.letour.fr/2012/PRX/COURSE/fr/le_parcours.html.

The Queen

2012 Paris-Roubaix

Come Sunday the cobbles of Northern France look set to be covered in rain and mud. Soon after, they'll be covered in bidons, gel wrappers, fallen riders and bikes. One rider will take home a cobble, adding their name to that illustrious list of those who have won before him. Soon after collecting the cobble atop the podium the showers will beckon. Filled with muddy broken cyclists already with their mind focused on returning next year the victor, only one cyclist will enjoy a shower of victory.

Last year the Belgian Johan Vansummeren won after riding for several km's on a flat rear tyre. If he is successful in defending his title he'll surely not want to repeat the feat. However a win at Paris-Roubaix is win regardless of how it is achieved. A win on a flat tyre only adds to the magic of the monument. It will be loss not having the Swiss national champion Cancellara riding in the race following his crash at De Ronde. Regardless of who is racing, Paris-Roubaix will always be a special race but there are cyclists who light up the race every year. Vansummeren was a surprise winner last year on the Garmin team but his win showed that the race is never a foregone conclusion. Boonen is the outright favourite, and there is good reason for that. De Ronde reminded those in the know that a split second can change not only a race but a season. Its only early in the season, with no Grand Tours so far, but seasons for some are already reaching a crisis point. Who ends up smiling a muddy smile is anyone's guess, and that is the excitement of racing. It is race that is on edge for almost all of its 260km+ distance and that is even without the cobbles. Crashes are inevitable but hopefully will not be a deciding factor in the outcome of the victor.

There will be an article in the coming days of a longer length commenting upon the race throughout its history and some of the memorable moments that they cycling Gods have blessed us with.

Talking Points Post Flanders

Boonen: He is back. With all the pre hype and favouritism on Boonen and Cancellara, the pressure shifted totally to the Belgian after Cancellara went down in the feed zone breaking his collarbone with 62kms to go.  The complexion of the race changed. One of the favourites was gone. Not just out of De Ronde but the entire classics campaign. Boonen showed what a champion he is recapturing his magical form of the mid 2000s in which Paris-Roubaix, De Ronde and the road World Championships were at his mercy.  Boonen showed not only his physical strength on Sunday but let the peloton know that mentally, he is focused and ready to hurt, to push that little further and cross that line which separates that places on the podium. The finale of the race seemed like years gone by. Pozzato, Ballan and Boonen all fighting it out for the win? Not many have guessed that would be the case in 2012. Pozzato said he was the strongest out there on Sunday but Boonen suggested it that may have not been the case as he was unable to shift fully across his cassette. With De Ronde done and dusted for another year 2012’s edition feels like a two part extravaganza. Boonen now heads into Paris-Roubaix as sole favourite. Pozzato may be up there but how he responses to two gruelling races a week apart on what must still be a recovering collarbone will come to light on Sunday.

Cancellara: An unlucky crash with severe consequences for the Swiss rider has ended one of his two major season goals. Recovering at home after announcing his wife is expecting their second child, Spartacus is looking to return to racing at Bayern Rundfahrt. An innocuous situation proved fatal for Cancellara’s spring campaign. A quadruple break of the right collarbone was the result of a stray water bottle in the feed zone. A few weeks ago Mark Cavendish took aim at the peloton and Katusha in particular after a stray bottle almost ended his spring. As Cancellara said, it’s a part of racing and life. The Olympics beckon now for the Swiss superstar who’ll be looking at repeating his Beijing gold in the ITT and he must be looking to do a double and take home gold in the road race as well.  So with Cancellara now focused on Olympic glory Paris-Roubaix will be Boonen’s race to lose.

Pozzato: The Italian showed that he may be back to best. A change in team from Katusha to the Italian Farnese Vini-Selle Italia team seems to paying off after an early season interruption in which he broke a collarbone. The rivalry with Boonen will certainly resume at Paris-Roubaix but there certainly be more protagonists in France with defending champion Johan Vansummeren and Thor Hushovd expected to make strong showings. How Pozzato pulls up following De Ronde will impact his race come Sunday but following Sunday’s 2^nd placing he was keen to let the press know he was the strong rider but also the first of the idiots. The work he did with compatriot Ballan was also a crucial factor in his good finish. If these two get away in a break again at Roubaix it could be an Italian victory, which in the monuments is becoming a rarity.

BMC: A strong showing without Gilbert and Hushovd making any moves suggests BMC are getting close to a classics win in 2012. Ballan was the strong rider at De Ronde and was quite rightly the protected rider. Gilbert flexed his muscles once or twice but didn’t interest any of the other riders. If he is to find his form of the Ardennes in 2011 he’ll have a lot of training in the next 2 weeks. Hushovd was another of the stars who, true to his character, had a below par race. Not a fan of Flanders, Hushovd clearly had two eyes on Roubaix and was fine to get some more kms in the legs and some practice on the cobbles. With the forecast leaning towards a wet race the kms Hushovd has in his legs after De Ronde may prove decisive after he pushed through to finish. Greg Van Avermaet sprinted to 4^th showing that at any other team he’d probably be a 1^st choice classics rider. He isn’t but he is still pushing his case should Hushovd or Ballan have bad day on Sunday.

There was a lot more talking points post De Ronde but with the majority of these issues dealt with by numerous sources they needn’t be dealt with here. Attention is now fully focused on Sunday after Kittel took out a crash marred sprint at the 100^th edition of Scheldeprijs. Boonen will take the favourite tag individually now with several riders a rung below him. Pozzato and Ballan filling out the podium again won’t be a surprise but with Hushovd after his maiden win and in enigmatic form and Vansummeren looking to do the double, there looks to be more fireworks than De Ronde.

Christmas is Here

Will it be Tornado Tom or Spartacus? Perhaps a black sheep?

This years Ronde may have a surprise finale somewhat similar to Nuyens unlikely win last year. This year its not all about the winner either. If Hincapie finishes the race today he'll be the only rider to have 17 completions, and this is a fellow who was third in 2006. A podium looks beyond the veteran. However, BMC may just gel and blitz the field. Get out those Flemish flags, De Ronde 2012 is only a few hours away. This year, there are the  duel favorites but behind them is an intriguing cast of minor characters. Of those, the most intriguing has to be the rerouting of the course. Cancellara may solo away but find the new ending a bridge to far. Tommeke will be looking for a sprint with Spartacus to add to his 2005 and 2006 Ronde's.


It's hard to look beyond a red hot Tornado Tom. However I'am backing Spartacus to put behind his 2nd placing in recent monuments and take home a second Ronde. Let the fireworks begin...