Last year the Orica-GreenEdge team fielded 17 men in the road race which was taken out by Simon Gerrans. Gerrans will be looking to defend his title and his main competition is more likely to come from his teammates than his trade team rivals due to GreenEdge’s superior numbers. Although this is a national race, the riders all wear their trade team kits and usually ride as that team. This is a disadvantage to riders with small teams but hasn’t stopped the odd surprise victory from an unheralded rider. With GreenEdge containing the most riders, their rivals will be riding against the World Tour team with a mountain to climb in the unlikely event a non-GreenEdge rider succeeds.
Making up the podium alongside Gerrans were Richie Porte and Mathew Lloyd. It was Lloyd’s first return to the podium after his 2008 victory and both Gerrans Porte’s maiden medal ceremony. Porte will cut a lonely figure in his dashing new Rapha Sky kit and it appears unlikely he’ll be showcasing it on the podium this year. He does have a teammate in Matthew Hayman but a single teammate won't be enough to tip the scales to his advantage. Matt Lloyd (Lampre) whose 2012 season contained few highlights appears unlikely to trouble the podium again in 2013 as he is the sole Lampre rider contesting the race. Of the three Gerrans is most likely to make a repeat visit to the podium.
After becoming only the second Australian to finish all three grand tour’s, Adam Hansen (Lotto) will be hoping he can improve upon his two silver medals (2006 & 2008) and a bronze (2009) with all those kilometres in his legs. Just as Porte and Lloyd will be marginalised by the lack of teammates so will Hansen but this could form an unlikely alliance to form and carry any of these riders to glory. The 2011 champion Jack Bobridge is on a new team this year after he left GreenEdge wanting a new challenge and change from the safety of the Australian set up. The Australian crashed during last year’s ITT and as a result missed out on defending his title but a second title in 2013 racing in his new Blanco team kit looks unlikely for the same reasons even with Mark Renshaw as his teammate.
The podium could very much be an all GreenEdge affair. The course changes have been explained as a means to open up the race and bring the sprinters into the fore. In the last few editions a break has stayed away, usually of three riders ensuring it’s a race to the line. The changes however also look to open it up for riders of Gerrans calibre, an Ardennes cyclist who can explode on the climbs and leave their rivals clasping for breath up the short painful ascent of Buninyong. The race could very much be GreenEdge controlling proceedings by having Luke Durbridge and Stuart O’Grady on the front pacing the peloton before they peel off and set it up for Gerrans and Simon Clarke to attack on the hills and breakaway. Once they are away, GreenEdge can continually disrupt and attempt to chase down anyone wanting to join to the break. Drapac or an Australian team who have a handful of riders could be the only real challenges for a medal due to their larger squad sizes. Making sure these two stay away or their equivalents (the Meyer’s or Mitch Docker for example) will be crucial for the team to ensure the win.
If a breakaway goes and contains too many riders likely to outfox or outnumber the GreenEdge riders then they have the power for a sprint finish. In 2009 the title was going to be either Michael Rogers or Hansen’s as these two were teammates at the time and with the unlikely Peter MacDonald as their companion had the win sown up. Instead the two were trying to make a deal and split the winnings. MacDonald was having none of it as he had the least to lose and most to win. He outfoxed the two and rode away to his biggest win of his career in a surprise victory. GreenEdge would be pulling out teeth if such an event was to occur on Sunday and will be chasing down any opportunists. With 13 riders they can certainly burn riders, only one rider needs to finish the race.
So with 13 riders all focused on delivering a teammate across the line they have two very strong opportunities. The first of having Gerrans et al breakaway and in case of an unsuccessful breakaway, Michael Mathews and Matthew Goss should deliver in a sprint. Matthews rode to a bronze medal in the Men’s ITT on Wednesday in his first outing for the team and the former U/23 World champion can more than match it in a sprint. Goss’s season goal will surely be Tour stages but he has shown in the past that he has the legs in January, as his silver medal in 2011 attests to. As arguably Australia’s fastest sprinter he will be favourite in a bunch sprint, should it come to down to it. Either way, GreenEdge should have the firepower to make it a clean sweep of the nationals for a second year running after Durbridge repeated his 2011 ITT victory.
Outside favourites: William Walker (Drapac), Richie Porte (Sky), Adam Hansen (Lotto), Mark Renshaw (Blanco), Darren Lapthorne (Drapac)
Orica-GreenEdge team: Simon Clarke, Baden Cooke, Mitch Docker, Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Leigh Howard, Simon Gerrans, Matthew Goss, Michael Matthews, Cameron Meyer, Travis Meyer, Stuart O’Grady, Wesley Sulzberger
Course Map
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