Astana

2 outta 3 ain't bad...

Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2012

Whose up for the last of the Ardennes in 2012? Nissan-Radioshack look like they'll play a key role in race in order for one the Schlecks to take home the win. Katusha will be looking to make it two wins out of three and with Rodriguez they could do it. BMC will be looking for a better finish after several podiums placing by Ballan and Gilbert. Chavanel will lead the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team who'll be rapt with another Classics win to go with Boonen's swag.

A repeat of last years podium could be likely. It probably won't be Gilbert followed home by the Schelcks. the finale of last year's race is not one they would be keen to replicate. Andy has one Liège-Bastogne-Liège win already while Frank will be looking to win a second Ardennes classics to go with his Amstel Gold Race win in 2006.

No Amstel for Katusha but a Classics Win Looks Close

Watch out for a Spanish Katusha win either tonight or on Sunday at liege. Katusha looked the goods at Amstel but come up short. Oscar Freire will have gained confidence not only for the 2 remaining Ardennes classics but remember, the Worlds this year will be Ardennes like.  This year the Ardennes has that little more prestige as riders look to do a quadruple taking home a rainbow jersey as well.

Simon Gerrans may take home a second classics win this week, Gilbert showed his form is coming back but backing a Katusha win may pay dividends.

Denis Galimzyanov and Enrico Gasparotto

Contrasting Fortunes

Two riders whose two different results may become defining moments not only this season but in their careers. Enrico Gasparotto won the Amstel Gold Race in a thrilling finale coming over the top of a fading Gilbert attack, outsprinting Jelle Vanendert and Peter Sagan. The Italian took home his biggest win. In comparison Russian Sprinter Denis Galimzyanov has tested to EPO. A B sample can be requested to be tested but in the meantime it is another doping scandal to hit cycling and another rider from Katusha who has tested positive.

Denis Galimzyanov's positive test will be beneficial to all the cycling commentators out there. His name is one of the most unpronounceable names in the peloton. The Ardennes second classic is coming up with a changing complexion. The eastern European teams (Although Astana is based in Switzerland) have had contrasting results and respectively, these results will impact the peloton. On the road, Astana will be watched a little more closely while Katusha will be looking for a win to deflect some of the negative publicity following the positive EPO test.

A Week in the Ardennes

Coming up next week will be Phil Gilbert's triple defense of the Ardennes classics that he won last year. A clean sweep looks unlikely again this year after indifferent form following the move to BMC but Gilbert is not a rider who can be easily written off. There will be several challengers to Gilbert this season and of those, Peter Sagan looks like a real threat. The 22 year old Slovakian National Champion could land a double punch with team mate Vincenzo Nibali at his side. However Cadel Evans could prove to be the ace in BMC's hand riding as a super domestique. Closer to the Ardennes there will be greater signs of who is in form and once teams are announced, who'll have the strongest support. Tom Boonen has already pulled out of the Amstel Gold Race and his presence will be missed. Andy Schleck has a Liège–Bastogne–Liège win to his name along with top-ten finishes at Amstel and La Flèche Wallonne. Again, like Gilbert, Schleck has had an indifferent beginning to 2012 but it is his schedule to peak in April for the Ardennes before peaking again for Le Tour. Simon Gerrans in another rider who could challenge for a win, and his 2nd classics win this year following his Milan-San Remo win.

A longer article will appear later in the week/early next week looking at the favourites and major talking points leading into the Ardennes.

Boonen Doubles up on Cobbled Double

Boonen's 2012 Paris-Roubaix Extravaganza

Paris-Roubaix once again proved a happy hunting ground for tom Boonen. Repeating his heroics of 2005 in which he won De Ronde and Paris-Roubaix Boonen has asserted his dominance as not only a great among his peers, but a great among the greats. His feats at De Ronde last weekend saw him equal the record number of wins with 3. At Paris-Roubaix he went one better and won four. By doing so he equalled a record held since the 1970s by compatriot Rodger De Vlaeminck. At 31 Boonen should have several more cobbled classics in his legs. If he manages to win five Ronde’s and five Paris-Roubaix, it would be an amazing feat. but a feat that looks a distinct possibility.

Boonen’s attack on Sunday caught his rivals unawares who then decided that such an audacious attack would probably not be successful. Sky had four riders in the chase group and yet could not even pull back Boonen, let alone catch him. Boonen’s attack was reminiscent of his great Swiss rival Fabian Cancellara by attacking over 50kms away and soloing to victory. Boonen in the past had expressed a desire to branch into ITT’s after what could be said was a flat point in his career.  In 2009 Boonen suggested the 2010 world championships in Australia would be a goal of his. Since Boonen won no ITT’s he has become more focused on the cobbles and been duly rewarded for his focus and hard work. A move back from Monaco to Belgium had been seen by some a shift in Boonen’s recognition of taking cycling seriously as profession. The cocaine years were perhaps a wakeup call to Tommeke who blessed with natural talent appeared dissatisfied with the sport as wins became formalities without excitement or joy.

The second double on the cobbles is a first in cycling history. Several riders have done the double before and Cancellara came close last year with podium placings at De Ronde and Roubaix but Boonen has quite rightly shown that his cobbled form is almost unmatchable. As suggested in prior post, the race was Boonen’s to lose. He would have to race and win but how he did so would be of interest. What made the race so exciting was that Boonen broke away with teammate Niki Terpstra and stayed away. It was a move that didn’t need to be pulled off. Boonen could have stayed in the select breakaway and sprinted for the win. Instead he rode with panache to prove his four wins are of pure class. During the final kms Boonen made two gestures to the camera showing his relaxed state. Firstly pointing to the camera with his index finger implying he was number one he then held up four fingers in acknowledgement that the race was his that day. By winning he would also match the Roubaix record. Soloing away let Boonen not only celebrate before entering the velodrome but also reflect upon his win as equalling the record, writing another page of cycling history.

Had Cancellara been racing on Sunday there may have been a phenomenal finale to the race had he and Boonen gone together. In the past it has been Cancellara who has left Boonen eating his dust; perhaps Boonen could have reversed that trend. However there is little point in analysing counter factual history so instead, let’s salute Boonen for his gusto ride and celebrate his glorious return to form in the cobbled classics. Should Boonen show this form later in the year GC stages, sprinters classifications and perhaps another road world championship could be his by the end of 2012.

Paris Roubaix 2012 Preview

Paris Roubaix

An Easter in Hell

Eagerly awaited as the third of five monuments in the cycling calendar, Paris-Roubaix is sure to be a special race once again. The 110^th edition will be raced over 257.5km’s on Easter Sunday with the outright favourite Tom Boonen looking to win the race for a 4^th time.  If Boonen goes on to win it will be his second Ronde-Roubaix double after his success season in 2005. Tied on three wins with some of the sports superstars such as Eddy Merckx and Johan Museeuw, a 4^th win would take him level with compatriot Rodger De Vlaeminck who won four editions of the race in the 1970s. There will be several riders capable of stopping Tommeke in Sunday but they will be starting as second tier favourites.  A crash by Boonen may be the only way to stop the Belgian from rewriting the history books, again.

Known affectionately as the Hell of the North, Paris-Roubaix harks back to the beginnings of professional cycling. The cobbled sections, or pavé, are one of the distinguishing features of the race proving thrills and spills for riders and spectators. When the pavés are wet the race becomes more spectacular as the fighting spirit and courage of the riders shone through.  Covered head to toe in mud while racing along the pavé at speeds exceeding 60kms is only a trivial matter, positioning will be a far more important  though in the riders mins than paying attention to some mud on the face. A crucial stage in the race is always the entry into the Trouée d'Arenberg. At 2400 meters in length, this section of pavé the Trouée d'Arenberg section was left out in 2005 after it was considered unsafe for racing. Earlier in the year there were fears that Trouée d'Arenberg would be left out again after excessive moss and plant growth had rendered the pavé unsuitable for racing. The entry into the Arenberg is often fraught with the select riders jostling for position to ensure the entry the forest in the first positions who exits the 2.4kms in the leading positions is usually an indication of who will finish on the podium.  Introduced in 1968 the Arenberg is one if the defining sections of pavé in the race. Not the longest section of the pavé but definitely one the hardest it is arguably an inclusion for the benefit of spectators than the riders. Filippo Pozzato is one rider who has expressed concerns over its inclusion. However with the amount of pavé taken home by keen spectators, his view could be said to be the minority.

The pavé vary in length, difficulty and elevation in the race. There will be a total of 51.5km s of pavé in the 2012 race. The idiosyncrasies of the pavé enhance the race with the riders at times only just recovering between sections of pavé before reaching another. Although the parcours of the race continually change depending on the condition of roads and pavé sections the most decisive sections are generally regarded as the aforementioned Trouée d'Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle (3kms in length) and the Carrefour L’Arbre which in the final kilometres of race is quite often the deciding factor in the race at 2.1kms. These three sections are giving the hardest rating of five stars which is calculated through the conditions of the pavé, length and their position in the race. The pavé of the Trouée d'Arenberg section where first laid during the reign of the Napoleon I however their history has become entwined with cycling. The historical depth of the race is a sign of its appeal as much more than a bicycle race. It is a race that encompasses European and French history and in doing so shows the heroic qualities of Napoleon are now found in the lucky cyclists who race on the pavé each year.

The other two five star pavé sections are either side of the Trouée d’Arenberg in length. Of the three, Mons-en-Pévèle is the longest and the Carrefour L’Arbre the shortest. The Mons-en-Pévèle section begins with what can be referred to as regular pavé or at least ‘good condition’ pavé before the section becomes harder with irregular pavé in quite often muddy conditions. With several turns in this section bike handling is put the ultimate test. After departing the Mons-en-Pévèle the riders have to endure 9 more sections of pavé before they enter the velodrome at Roubaix and the hardest of those remaining sections is the Carrefour L’Arbre. As the 4^th last section of pavé it is packed with spectators hoping for one final view of the pavé. In 2006 Stuart O’Grady became the first Australian to win the race, led the peloton through the Carrefour L’Arbre soloing away to the win. One year later O’Grady’s teammate Fabian Cancellara emulated his move by also riding solo over this section of the pavé. There is a variety of pavé condition on this section varying from almost atrocious pavé to those in good conditions in equal distribution across the road. After the Carrefour L’Arbre the remaining sections of pavé are rated two and one stars and the race can no longer be decided by the pavé.

Following Boonen’s sprint victory over Pozzato at De Ronde, Alessandro Ballan this week has said that Pozzato cannot beat Boonen in a sprint. Boonen has tried to deflect the talk of favouritism by talking up his rivals but if the race comes down to a sprint in the velodrome between Boonen and his rivals, a fourth title looks likely to be his. One rider capable of matching Boonen in a sprint after 250kms is Ballan’s teammate Thor Hushovd. The 2010 world champion had consecutive podium finishes in 2009-2010 finishing second and third. Keen to repay the faith BMC has placed in him after his move from Garmin-Cervélo at the end of year’s season, the Norwegian will hoping for a successful Paris-Roubaix with BMC. Ballan proved he is on form after his 3^rd placing at De Ronde. However he may find Hushovd as the protected rider on Sunday although that shouldn’t hinder the Italian from a top ten position. Greg Van Avermaet showed that in BMC’s expensively assembled Classics team that a high finish is possible without being a protected rider. The 3^rd and 4^th finishes of Ballan and Van Avermaet respectively could a sign of the things to come from BMC at Roubaix with Hushovd the third ace in their hand. The foregone conclusion of Boonen walking away with anther cobble may not be so if BMC are on fire, never mind the form of Pozzato.

Garmin-Barracuda will be looking to defend Johan Vansummeren’s title after he rode away to win by 19 seconds last year. It appears unlikely that the 6’6’ Belgian will repeat his heroics of last year but a high finish would still be a positive result. On the American team, Heinrich Haussler will be looking for a top ten finish as attempts to once again recapture his scintillating form of 2009. Omega Pharma-Quickstep, Garmin-Barracuda and BMC will have three of the strongest teams on Easter Sunday and a podium comprising riders from each of the respective teams could be a reflection of their strength in numbers. Nissan Radioshack Leopard’s loss of Cancellara has shown their lack of strength and depth of alternatives Classics riders.  Greenedge will be keen to put in a god showing in its Paris-Roubaix debut but they may just be making up numbers at the conclusion of the race. After a successful introduction to the Pro Tour anything positive at Paris-Roubaix would be another boost for the team. With Simon Gerrans looking ahead to the Ardennes later this month, several Greenedge riders may just be riding to enjoy the monument gathering more experience as a team on the world circuit as the team will begin to look ahead to the Giro and Le Tour. The seven wild card teams this year may pull of a surprise top ten but their entry into the race will for some, be enough in itself as they enjoy the prestige of riding Paris-Roubaix.

This is Boonen’s race to lose. The pavé will play a deciding factor in the race with the three five star rated sections most probably playing the biggest roles of the pavé. The tactics of the teams will surely be how to stop Boonen but with the strength of Omega Pharma-Quickstep already on display after flexing their muscles at De Ronde, it might not be such an easy task. BMC and Garmin-Barracuda look to have strong teams and will influence the outcome of the race. Otherwise it is really individual riders rather than teams who’ll play decisive cards. If a rider manages to make a successful break it’ll be a big ballsy move. Without a strong Cancellara to blow the race apart there may be less tired bodies and a result several riders could enter the velodrome together. If Boonen was to be in that group, watch out, if Hushovd isn’t there with him, Boonen taking home a fourth cobble looks likely. It is not a foregone conclusion that Boonen will win. He still has to race. However as De Ronde showed, a little bit of bad luck can change the entire complexion of the race and the entire spring Classics with it. Isolating Boonen may be the prevailing tactic of the day but any weakness of Boonen looks trivial.

The Teams for Paris-Roubaix are yet to be finalised. Information of the 2012 route and a map can be found at http://www.letour.fr/2012/PRX/COURSE/fr/le_parcours.html.

The Queen

2012 Paris-Roubaix

Come Sunday the cobbles of Northern France look set to be covered in rain and mud. Soon after, they'll be covered in bidons, gel wrappers, fallen riders and bikes. One rider will take home a cobble, adding their name to that illustrious list of those who have won before him. Soon after collecting the cobble atop the podium the showers will beckon. Filled with muddy broken cyclists already with their mind focused on returning next year the victor, only one cyclist will enjoy a shower of victory.

Last year the Belgian Johan Vansummeren won after riding for several km's on a flat rear tyre. If he is successful in defending his title he'll surely not want to repeat the feat. However a win at Paris-Roubaix is win regardless of how it is achieved. A win on a flat tyre only adds to the magic of the monument. It will be loss not having the Swiss national champion Cancellara riding in the race following his crash at De Ronde. Regardless of who is racing, Paris-Roubaix will always be a special race but there are cyclists who light up the race every year. Vansummeren was a surprise winner last year on the Garmin team but his win showed that the race is never a foregone conclusion. Boonen is the outright favourite, and there is good reason for that. De Ronde reminded those in the know that a split second can change not only a race but a season. Its only early in the season, with no Grand Tours so far, but seasons for some are already reaching a crisis point. Who ends up smiling a muddy smile is anyone's guess, and that is the excitement of racing. It is race that is on edge for almost all of its 260km+ distance and that is even without the cobbles. Crashes are inevitable but hopefully will not be a deciding factor in the outcome of the victor.

There will be an article in the coming days of a longer length commenting upon the race throughout its history and some of the memorable moments that they cycling Gods have blessed us with.

Talking Points Post Flanders

Boonen: He is back. With all the pre hype and favouritism on Boonen and Cancellara, the pressure shifted totally to the Belgian after Cancellara went down in the feed zone breaking his collarbone with 62kms to go.  The complexion of the race changed. One of the favourites was gone. Not just out of De Ronde but the entire classics campaign. Boonen showed what a champion he is recapturing his magical form of the mid 2000s in which Paris-Roubaix, De Ronde and the road World Championships were at his mercy.  Boonen showed not only his physical strength on Sunday but let the peloton know that mentally, he is focused and ready to hurt, to push that little further and cross that line which separates that places on the podium. The finale of the race seemed like years gone by. Pozzato, Ballan and Boonen all fighting it out for the win? Not many have guessed that would be the case in 2012. Pozzato said he was the strongest out there on Sunday but Boonen suggested it that may have not been the case as he was unable to shift fully across his cassette. With De Ronde done and dusted for another year 2012’s edition feels like a two part extravaganza. Boonen now heads into Paris-Roubaix as sole favourite. Pozzato may be up there but how he responses to two gruelling races a week apart on what must still be a recovering collarbone will come to light on Sunday.

Cancellara: An unlucky crash with severe consequences for the Swiss rider has ended one of his two major season goals. Recovering at home after announcing his wife is expecting their second child, Spartacus is looking to return to racing at Bayern Rundfahrt. An innocuous situation proved fatal for Cancellara’s spring campaign. A quadruple break of the right collarbone was the result of a stray water bottle in the feed zone. A few weeks ago Mark Cavendish took aim at the peloton and Katusha in particular after a stray bottle almost ended his spring. As Cancellara said, it’s a part of racing and life. The Olympics beckon now for the Swiss superstar who’ll be looking at repeating his Beijing gold in the ITT and he must be looking to do a double and take home gold in the road race as well.  So with Cancellara now focused on Olympic glory Paris-Roubaix will be Boonen’s race to lose.

Pozzato: The Italian showed that he may be back to best. A change in team from Katusha to the Italian Farnese Vini-Selle Italia team seems to paying off after an early season interruption in which he broke a collarbone. The rivalry with Boonen will certainly resume at Paris-Roubaix but there certainly be more protagonists in France with defending champion Johan Vansummeren and Thor Hushovd expected to make strong showings. How Pozzato pulls up following De Ronde will impact his race come Sunday but following Sunday’s 2^nd placing he was keen to let the press know he was the strong rider but also the first of the idiots. The work he did with compatriot Ballan was also a crucial factor in his good finish. If these two get away in a break again at Roubaix it could be an Italian victory, which in the monuments is becoming a rarity.

BMC: A strong showing without Gilbert and Hushovd making any moves suggests BMC are getting close to a classics win in 2012. Ballan was the strong rider at De Ronde and was quite rightly the protected rider. Gilbert flexed his muscles once or twice but didn’t interest any of the other riders. If he is to find his form of the Ardennes in 2011 he’ll have a lot of training in the next 2 weeks. Hushovd was another of the stars who, true to his character, had a below par race. Not a fan of Flanders, Hushovd clearly had two eyes on Roubaix and was fine to get some more kms in the legs and some practice on the cobbles. With the forecast leaning towards a wet race the kms Hushovd has in his legs after De Ronde may prove decisive after he pushed through to finish. Greg Van Avermaet sprinted to 4^th showing that at any other team he’d probably be a 1^st choice classics rider. He isn’t but he is still pushing his case should Hushovd or Ballan have bad day on Sunday.

There was a lot more talking points post De Ronde but with the majority of these issues dealt with by numerous sources they needn’t be dealt with here. Attention is now fully focused on Sunday after Kittel took out a crash marred sprint at the 100^th edition of Scheldeprijs. Boonen will take the favourite tag individually now with several riders a rung below him. Pozzato and Ballan filling out the podium again won’t be a surprise but with Hushovd after his maiden win and in enigmatic form and Vansummeren looking to do the double, there looks to be more fireworks than De Ronde.

Christmas is Here

Will it be Tornado Tom or Spartacus? Perhaps a black sheep?

This years Ronde may have a surprise finale somewhat similar to Nuyens unlikely win last year. This year its not all about the winner either. If Hincapie finishes the race today he'll be the only rider to have 17 completions, and this is a fellow who was third in 2006. A podium looks beyond the veteran. However, BMC may just gel and blitz the field. Get out those Flemish flags, De Ronde 2012 is only a few hours away. This year, there are the  duel favorites but behind them is an intriguing cast of minor characters. Of those, the most intriguing has to be the rerouting of the course. Cancellara may solo away but find the new ending a bridge to far. Tommeke will be looking for a sprint with Spartacus to add to his 2005 and 2006 Ronde's.


It's hard to look beyond a red hot Tornado Tom. However I'am backing Spartacus to put behind his 2nd placing in recent monuments and take home a second Ronde. Let the fireworks begin...